Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
It’s not necessarily surprising that Tuesday’s weakness didn’t extend to last Thursday’s “lower prior highs” around 2048.00. Tuesday’s lows weren’t far below its 2053.00-2053.50 bias parameters, momentarily attacking 2051.00 coming out of the noon hour. But absent an overnight rally, don’t be surprised if 2048.00 is being tested instead.
Meanwhile, Tuesday’s last-hour rally performed above and beyond expectations. It was actually pretty easy, since there really weren’t any expectations. No accumulation below, no attraction above, no traction exiting the bias environment. But the 2056.50 buy signal was probed up to 2064.50 through the futures close.
AAPL’s earnings is all about AAPL now. The broader market can turn its attention to Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC policy statement and clues in the language accompanying it.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shwmthv
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… Ranging flat.
Bouncing in the absence of falling.
The afternoon bias environment hovered at or above its 2053.00 bias-down signal. The signal was still being overlapped both at 1:20 and 1:30 to avoid triggering.
The resulting action didn’t form anything accumulative, so there’s no buying pressure. The morning’s bounce filled the gap back to yesterday’s close, and there’s no other attraction above. And there’s no actual range, so holding its lower-end doesn’t require testing its upper-end.
Price action is simply inhibited or paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of post-close earnings. Most notable is AAPL, whose own reaction rarely affects the broader market anyway.
Daily Spot… Pre-FOMC jitters.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap up to 1.1085 still had room for noise up to 1.1100 before resuming the decline, or at least producing one more new low close. The gap didn’t extend higher, but it wasn’t yet rejected.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping Tuesday in reaction to Durable Goods still recovered to resume ranging around 1165.50, which must continue holding as support to launch a new upleg.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Initially dipping Tuesday was recovered to resume ranging around 15.85, potentially to launch a rally to new recovery highs.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s gap up extended higher to test the bounce limit from last Monday’s 158-10 / 158-24 highs. The extended bounce seemed a little much and a little early to be last-minute optimism ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement. Regardless, Wednesday’s news would be greeted from a position of strength after closing above 159-02.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down to fresh lows Tuesday suggests the decline we’ve been tracking is becoming more widely believed. A corrective bounce becomes likelier, especially if originating from the 41.50-42.20 area.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows overnight were recovered Tuesday morning to probe above the 2.08 bounce limit that would otherwise maintain the decline’s momentum. The bounce limit’s test reacted back down to close while testing 2.05 support.
Mid-day Update… Down for the count.
Bias-down target still holding, still not rejected.
Actually, this morning’s 2053.50 bias-down target’s test to within 1 tick did react up sharply. And a lot. All the way to 2063.75, which was last night’s high. And that reacted down sharply, too, also a lot. Back down to within 2 ticks of 2053.50.
Ranging relatively narrowly at the low has defined the noon hour. And soon the noon hour will begin lapsing. Recovering to trigger the afternoon’s 2061.00 bias-up signal would suggest fresh lows are off the table. Bounces otherwise should be limited to 2060.00.
Tomorrow afternoon’s FOMC policy statement is still far enough away that its influence is limited. Anxiousness ahead of today’s post-close AAPL earnings are probably more relevant. Potential down to Thursday’s “lower prior highs”around 2048.00 remains alive.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Oct 28, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: What Wednesday’s econ calendar lacks in quantity, it makes up with substance. That’s the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. A rate hike is not expected. But neither was the Spanish Inquisition.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
**FOMC Policy Statement
2:00 PM ET