Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2083.50 | 2077.00 |
| …would target | 2088.75 | 2082.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2076.75 | 2070.50 |
| …would target | 2071.00 | 2064.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Position of weak strength.
Pre-FOMC rally is expending a lot of energy.
Expending energy, and also fulfilling it. The 2065.00 bias-up signal triggered, and its 2071.50 target has been met already. It’s being probed up to 2074.00. Overbought RSIs will require its retest if a reaction down were to develop here.
Greeting this afternoon’s FOMC from a position of strength has been the expectation. But also expected was to react favorably and extend the rally. This was likeliest from dipping this morning to refuel buyers, however deeply, but already recovering into the 2:00 news.
This morning’s post-open dip was off of overnight highs, never actually reversing back under yesterday’s cash session close. That’s impatient optimism. Already fulfilling the bias-up target has satisfied that much buying pressure.
FOMC can still be greeted from a position of strength by dipping back back down to “lower prior highs” around 2066.00. Leaving overbought RSIs outstanding at the highs would help to provide a safety tether. Greeting the news above all prior highs can still resolve up, but we’ll be that much more assured of 2088.00 being a final destination for the correction.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight rally to fresh highs at 2066.50 has reacted back down to attack 2062.00. That’s still 2-3 points above yesterday’s 2060.00 cash session close, but 3-4 points under the bias-up and its preliminary signal. Actually rallying this morning will need to recover that pullback quickly and relentlessly. Otherwise, the possible consequence is a morning drop back down to and through yesterday’s lows.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrcvksv
The First Trade… The next elephant in the room.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Fresh lows were probed through the noon hour down to 2051.25. The afternoon bias environment firmed back up to 2057.00, and then to 2060.00 into the cash session close. That was still in negative territory, and under the morning’s higher highs at 2061.00 and 2063.75.
Overnight action’s new info…
Surging through the futures close did probe the morning’s high by 1 point up to 2064.75. But the post-close surge was rejected the Globex open which gapped down and retraced the cash session close down to 2059.50. That rejection was limited, and recovered, soon probing even higher to 2065.50. Now higher highs are probing another point higher to 2066.50.
If, then…
Tuesday morning’s bounce already filled the gap back to Monday’s 2063.50 close. Since that resolved in a lower low, there’s no bearish reason to revisit that gap intraday. So, maintaining the overnight gains through the open — especially if begun by gapping up through 2066.00 — could trend up sharply this morning, before becoming paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. Not maintaining the overnight recovery could resolve back down through yesterday’s lows and also probe under 2048.00.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2066.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2065.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2061.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2071.50 | 2065.00 |
| …would target | 2078.00 | 2071.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2062.50 | 2056.00 |
| …would target | 2054.75 | 2048.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.