Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2035.75 | 2028.50 |
| …would target | 2041.25 | 2034.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2029.00 | 2021.75 |
| …would target | 2024.00 | 2016.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… The pattern persists.
Another surge and quick retracement.
Actually, this morning’s incarnation of the ongoing template was to gap up. The surge had happened already overnight. Initially dipping from there tested the 2026.25 bias-up signal as support, which did recover to attack the open’s 2031.25 high.
Any higher would have marginalized sellers for the morning, if not for the day or even for the week. Reacting down instead went on to reject the 2026.25 bias-up signal. Triggering no-bias then put into play an offsetting test of the 2016.75 bias-down signal.
The 2016.75 objective was attacked to within 2 points before at least 1-minute RSI finally diverged positively. Its reaction up just tested 2024.00. Back under 2022.00 should resume the decline targeting 2016.75.
The bias-down signal’s test could be delayed for awhile. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back above this morning’s 2026.25 bias-up signal would make fresh session highs likelier first. Otherwise, 2016.75 remains in-play.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The open is indicated to gap up at or under yesterday’s 2030.50 high. Probing a fresh high and reversing back under it — all during the open — would form the basis for a top. Specific pricing would be considered for confirmation, of course. But the point is that NOT reversing down quickly from a probe above prior highs, or hesitating pessimistically short of even touching prior highs, could prevent a reaction down from getting very far before recovering.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzjvmhw
The First Trade… Bubbling over.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping down Tuesday within Monday afternoon’s range wasn’t likely to extend down, and was likelier to recover. Which it did, bouncing through the morning from 2019.50 to 2031.50. That was also essentially a move from one bias signal to the other. Being a no-bias environment with plenty of time remaining, price reversed back down into the afternoon’s bias environment. Retesting the morning’s low initially held, reacting up to 2027.00. But that reacted back down into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
The closing reaction down extended quickly to 2015.75, 3 ticks under Monday’s low. Then a steep rally into and out of midnight touched 2034.25. Its reaction down to 2020.50 was reversed back up to 2031.75, which essentially repeated Tuesday morning’s rally (both circled green on the chart).
If, then…
An early surge to fresh highs and that reacts down as quickly and as sharply, that’s the topping template we’ve been monitoring in this area. Yesterday’s post-open surge and its reaction back down almost fit, except that its timing followed an early dip. Last night’s surge and reaction down almost fit, too, except for being last night and not intraday. An early post-open surge that quickly reverses down would be credible for extending down intraday. But not rejecting an early surge could put the next higher objective in-play at 2055.00.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2027.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2026.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2023.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2033.75 | 2026.25 |
| …would target | 2079.25 | 2032.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2024.00 | 2016.75 |
| …would target | 2018.50 | 2011.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.