Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2021.00 | 2013.75 |
| …would target | 2026.75 | 2019.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2013.00 | 2005.75 |
| …would target | 2006.50 | 1999.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… Are they through, yet?
Afternoon plunge failing its recovery.
Exiting the noon hour in decline from 2028.25 slid sharply to 2012.75 at the bias environment’s low. The balance of the bias environment consolidated under its 2016.75 bias-down target, then around it, and finally just above it up to 2018.50 — until 2:30, when the bias environment began lapsing.
Exiting the bias environment by surging 6 points to 2024.00 retraced more than 61.8% of the plunge. But now another dip is testing the afternoon’s 2016.75 bias-down target. And the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window is around the corner.
Oversold RSIs at the 2012.75 low require a retest. Not necessarily today, not if 2019.00 were recovered first, and especially not if 2021.25 were recovered, too. But nothing above requires a retest, so extending down sharply today or overnight can’t be discounted.
Daily Spot… Is Gold gone?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Ranging only narrowly Wednesday instead of rejecting Tuesday’s gap up session does suggest the recovery potential remains intact.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another break to fresh relative lower Wednesday tested the maximum pullback limit at 1165.50. Any lower would require a deeper and more prolonged drop before putting back into play a retest of prior highs up to 1195.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Wednesday to 15.85 extended to fresh lows intraday at 15.60. Back above 15.85 would start to signal momentum reversing back up. Closing under 15.60 would suggest no recovery soon.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Wednesday and extending back above the 158-04 sell signal also retraced Monday’s range entirely back up to 158-24, which is the highest acceptable corrective bounce.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down overnight probed under last week’s two “ineffectual pessimism” sessions to 44.85. The trend remains down so long as 46.85 isn’t recovered through the close.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two days of counter-trend bouncing had retraced almost all of the room allowed it up to 2.48-2.51. The overnight reaction down gapped down Wednesday to probe under the 2.41 prior low. A bottom would be premature, but a bottoming pattern could begin forming. Regardless, Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Oct 22, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s busy calendar starts with its highlight, the ECB monetary meeting (usually followed by Mario Draghi’s Q&A). A couple of housing sector reports make each other influential, for their potential either to confirm or dispute each other..
**ECB Policy Statement
7:30 AM ET
*Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
*FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
30-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Mid-day Update… Round-round-trip.
Open’s drop recovers much.
This morning’s reaction up from 2018.50 made it to 2025.25 before reacting back down under 2022.00-2023.00 to resume the decline. But the decline didn’t actually resume. The low was attacked to within 3 ticks and then another bounce began.
This second bounce was much more productive, testing 2028.25. A Close-Quarters Double Top there has reacted down to attack 2025.00. Any lower would start to signal the bounce had ended. That would still be subject to confirmation, this being the noon hour, and having recovered well back into positive territory.
Otherwise, back above 2028.00 would start to confirm the detour is extending. Fulfilling objectives below would be delayed for a more substantial probe of fresh highs.