Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2048.25 | 2041.25 |
| …would target | 2053.25 | 2046.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2040.75 | 2034.00 |
| …would target | 2035.50 | 2028.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP. BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Session-long rally?
Probing fresh recovery highs.
The pre-open surge to 2023.50 was recovered after retracing 61.8%. And then it extended higher, absorbing a post-open pullback to ultimately maintain a gap up above yesterday afternoon’s 2024.25 high.
Contrasted against having trended down into yesterday’s close, the result forms a “session-long rally.” Each timing window but one should probe above its prior timing window’s high. The slope can be shallower.
The risk is that substantially higher prices inhibit more buying sponsorship, and instead attracts sellers. A lot of energy has been expended and a lot of ground has been covered, probing all prior highs up to 2035.50 before 10:15.
Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back under 2024.25 would “invert” the setup. The balance of the session would behave like a session-long decline.
Already probing fresh highs after 10:15 does make inversion less likely. Still, trending up through every timing window would make the last window likely to reverse down. I’ll continue discussing the setup’s different characteristics as they become relevant.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Hovering just under 2016.75 suddenly surged to 2023.50 during Mario Draghi’s press conference. That attacked yesterday afternoon’s 2024.25 highs, whose immediate recovery could have marginalized sellers. But the threat came too early to be maintained. Besides, Mario was still talking, allowing a 61.8% reaction down to 2018.00.
But that’s natural support, and Mario is still talking, allowing a recovery to 2023.00. Is a gap up above yesterday afternoon’s 2024.25 highs possible, after all? That won’t be relevant if the opening 15 minutes doesn’t touch 2024.25. But if it is tested, then recovering it or not through the open could be very predictive.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkbykck
The First Trade… Pins and needles giving way to daggers.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s retest of Monday’s 2031.50 high had quickly peaked and reversed down on the way to 2020.50. A pre-open retest of 2031.50 wasn’t rejected immediately, but much more substantially. The open’s drop found support upon testing 2020.50 but its next test slid to 2013.00. Fresh lows into and out of the close slid to 2007.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Optimism and apprehension? Firming early back up to the 2017.00 area peaked by midnight. With the ECB rate decision and Draghi speaking, price action since then has only ranged sideways back to 2012.50.
If, then…
The pattern since last Thursday afternoon’s 30-point rally to 2019.50 had only ranged sideways through Tuesday’s close, albeit biased upward. Tuesday night’s surge to 2034.25 was a fresh high for the range, and Wednesday afternoon’s 2007.50 was a fresh low for the range. Much of the selling was probably defensive posturing ahead of this morning’s ECB/Draghi events. So, was it prescient that the events would spur even more dramatic selling, or has that been discounted so much that a rally back to the upper-end comes next? We’ll know a lot more very soon. But a path back to the highs is still possible if the open isn’t already duplicating yesterday’s slides.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2016.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2013.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2020.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2019.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2025.50. Exiting the open under 2003.50 would be likely to trigger the 2005.75 bias-down signal.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Did Wednesday form a trend change setup? It may have begun one. It’s a long way down to last week’s 1982.50 lows before sealing a top. But rallying to a fresh high close above 2026.50 is easier, and that would raise the trend change signal considerably.
Actually, rallying to a fresh high close is nearer. It’s 15-18 points away from Wednesday’s 2008.50 / 2011.50 close, and 26-29 points from last week’s lows. But rallying to a fresh high close is made more difficult by having just ended an intraday 20-23 point slide.
Fun fact: Wednesday’s close is essentially a Fibonacci 38.2% retracement between the two. It’s natural support, so maybe an immediate recovery isn’t actually more difficult.The 61.8% retracement is 1999.25. Its test is likely if not already rallying at Thursday’s open.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkcwpw
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc