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Rod David – Page 1612 – If, Then… Market Timing

Posts by Rod David

Post-open Review…

Brief opening dip recovers to fresh highs.

Fresh highs were a formality. The only question to be answered by the open was whether its delay would last the morning, or last at all. Ultimately, a post-open dip tested the 2020.50 bias-down signal by 1 point before reversing back up to and through Sunday night’s prior highs at 2028.75.

An offsetting test of the 2031.00 bias-up signal is in-play. That’s essentially the highest room for noise above prior highs.

Meanwhile, prior highs are natural resistance. Just piercing them is still overlapping them. An interim pullback to the 2023.00 area can’t be discounted. And a pullback under the 2023.00 area can’t be reliable for recovering.

[Here’s the XP-friendly chaRTroom link if you didn’t receive it earlier.]

 

Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)

The pre-open dive to 2019.25 was recovered up to 2025.25. Now that’s reacting back down to 2021.50. Diving any more deeply open still must break that pre-open congestion to even threaten yesterday’s lows. So, with a probe of fresh highs still likely, the only question seems whether interim weakness will be limited to the morning, just to the open, or ignored altogether at the first tick. Only breaking under yesterday afternoon’s 2016.50 lows would undermine fresh highs.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkbybms

The First Trade… Within the range.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday’s choppy session didn’t contribute to the rally, other than to prevent a Pivot Reversal from forming. Its late-morning and last-minute surges pierced 1-2 points above Friday’s 2026.00 high, stopping just short of Sunday night’s 2028.00 high. Each intraday leg overlapped 2019.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Shallow sideways ranging never pierced Monday’s late high. The only real trending attempt came well after Europe’s opens, dropping back down to test 2019.50. A consolidation there has launched a surge to 2023.50.

If, then…
Not yet rejecting last week’s test of 2019.50 has all but ensured at least probing momentarily higher to the 2031.75 area. Gapping down within yesterday’s range would be too shallow to launch a new downleg. Gapping down under yesterday afternoon’s 2016.50 low could form a “session-long decline,” which is an unlikely development at this stage of the pattern, but only more likely as the overnight drop has halved the distance back to yesterday’s low.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2019.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2020.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2024.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2031.00 bias-up signal at 10:15., and above 2024.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Livestox Recording Oct 19, 2015

Monday’s post-close Livestox recording is below, and the stocks we addressed in order follow that. I highlighted my most timely picks, updated some previous coverage, and reviewed charts that were requested by subscribers. The session is heavy on analytical technique. Please don’t hesitate posting follow-up questions to this blog post’s thread.

Livestox recording (MP4)

SPX

GPRO

TWTR

GILD

SCTY

BTX

KMDA

SZYM

ARNA

OGRMF

PMCB

TWMJF

XXII

ECIG

VAPE

Missing link.

The post-close email was missing the link to the post-market Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzrzxs