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The First Trade… Within the range. – If, Then… Market Timing

The First Trade… Within the range.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday’s choppy session didn’t contribute to the rally, other than to prevent a Pivot Reversal from forming. Its late-morning and last-minute surges pierced 1-2 points above Friday’s 2026.00 high, stopping just short of Sunday night’s 2028.00 high. Each intraday leg overlapped 2019.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Shallow sideways ranging never pierced Monday’s late high. The only real trending attempt came well after Europe’s opens, dropping back down to test 2019.50. A consolidation there has launched a surge to 2023.50.

If, then…
Not yet rejecting last week’s test of 2019.50 has all but ensured at least probing momentarily higher to the 2031.75 area. Gapping down within yesterday’s range would be too shallow to launch a new downleg. Gapping down under yesterday afternoon’s 2016.50 low could form a “session-long decline,” which is an unlikely development at this stage of the pattern, but only more likely as the overnight drop has halved the distance back to yesterday’s low.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2019.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2020.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2024.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2031.00 bias-up signal at 10:15., and above 2024.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

2 Comments

  1. Bill Gagnaire on October 20, 2015 - 8:40 am at 8:40 am

    Rod,
    Need a new XP friendly link.



  2. Rod David on October 20, 2015 - 9:58 am at 9:58 am

    Sorry, not sure what happened with that but the link is now updated