Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The bearish WedEX was influential Friday until the final hour. That’s when the last relative high at 2023.00 was exceeded, and its recovery was maintained through the close. The close extended up to 2026.00.
Absorbing the fresh high back under 2023.00 at Friday’s close would have maintained the bearish WedEX’s potential. Now it’s too late for that. Absorbing Friday’s late surge must be signaled by Monday immediately breaking back under bias environment’s 2012.75 low. At least, back under the noon hour’s 2015.75 low.
Maintaining a gap open under the bias environment’s 2012.75 low would also form a “session-long decline” setup. The bearish WedEX would likely compound the reversal, targeting the week’s 1982.50 low. Any shallower opening weakness would more likely recover and resume the rally.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkcbwz
REMINDER: This weekend’s Saturday Review begins at 9:30am ET. We’ll discuss the bigger picture targets for extending higher and the setups for reversing down. We’ll also review any stock chart requests:
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Pre-close View… Bearish WedEX?
Two bearish indicators being overcome.
The afternoon’s fresh lows were probed during a no-bias environment, under its 2016.00 bias-down signal. Any day other than expiration would have required retracing up to 2016.00. Nevertheless, it was recovered, and exceeded to fresh session highs at 2024.75.
The session’s opening 15 minutes had trended down throughout suggesting downtrending throughout the day. Everything except the last upleg fulfilled the open’s setup. Meanwhile, the session’s bearish WedEX couldn’t sustain the downtrend. But its potential would remain alive — albeit on life support — by closing at or under 2023.00.
The bearish WedEX’s should influence Monday morning very aggressively, or else not at all. Not already trending down at Monday’s open would be likely to extend higher through the morning.
Daily Spot… Setting up for big moves,
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s ranging around Thursday’s 1.1370 lows still didn’t reverse the trend down, and allows the rally to resume at any time.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting down overnight into Friday’s open thoroughly tested the 1179.50 pullback limit, which keeps alive potential for a fresh high that fulfills the 1195.50 target.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping again in sympathy with Gold has still not reversed the trend down. Extending higher modestly would be toppy, while an aggressive probe of fresh highs would be much more reliable for extending higher.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s “inside day” didn’t reverse the week’s bounce to resistance, but neither was the bounce confirmed. The sell signal remains at 158-04.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Friday to test 47.40 was recovered after an intraday dip, but it stopped short of rejecting the two prior sessions’ pessimism. Back under 46.10 would signal a new downleg underway. The bounce can otherwise extend up to 49.05.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s reaction down didn’t hold 2.44 Friday, and extended down to the two-week old prior low at 2.41. Any immediate bounce here would be considered only obligatory and temporary and likely to fail.
Mid-day Update… Good to the last drop.
Hovering in positive territory.
This morning’s choppy ranging wasn’t much different from the overnight action. Neither was it very rewarding to yesterday’s buyers for having gained traction. But fresh highs were probed, and positive territory was maintained throughout the morning.
It’s time for the bearish influences to make themselves apparent.
A bearish WedEX has been waiting in the wings, salivating at the rising prices. Its influence this afternoon need not be dramatic, and can simply force rally efforts to fail. This morning’s opening 15 minutes trended down, which also need not have a dramatic influence, but suggests the afternoon will print lower lows.
Between the two bearish influences, a flat-to-lower afternoon is likelier. An aggressive drop is possible. Yesterday’s 2017.00 cash session high is now being probed again. Back above 2020.50 would suggest fresh highs will be probed regardless.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 19, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday is the 28th Anniversary of 1987”s “Black Monday” stock market crash. Exciting. The day’s economic calendar is even less exciting, as is the entire week. Monday’s Fed speaker is a highlight.
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Jeffrey Lacker Speaks
12:00 PM ET