Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2030.00 | 2022.50 |
| …would target | 2035.50 | 2028.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2023.50 | 2016.00 |
| …would target | 2018.50 | 2011.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Skeptical.
Is the rally really ending without a fight?
Yesterday afternoon’s rally gained traction for having exited the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, and for then entering the final hour even higher. For that reason alone — at least, since that traction wasn’t invalidated through the open — I’m still expecting this morning to probe fresh highs.
Probe fresh highs… again. The open already probed fresh highs, surging to within 1 tick of 2024.00. But that doesn’t qualify as a reward. And if it had, then a deeper downdraft would be obvious by now.
The only downdraft was a brief probe under yesterday’s 2017.00 cash session high. It’s trying to recover, but still being overlapped. The rubber band was stretched, but it’s not exactly “snapping” back up.
Back above 2018.50 would signal and above 2020.50 confirm that a probe of fresh session highs above 2024.00 is underway. This could negate the morning’s “late no-bias” signal that is otherwise targeting an offsetting test of the 2011.00 bias-down signal.
This afternoon could be a different story. I think this afternoon will be a different story — with the bearish WedEX now accompanied by the opening 15 minutes of volatility having trended down. But afternoon bearishness would be difficult if there is any attraction outstanding above.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Down, but not out. Not even down.
Overnight choppiness is bouncing from 2014.00 to greet the open back above yesterday’s 2017.00 cash session high. The burden of proof is on sellers. It’s not a particularly difficult burden, but they’ve failed earlier attempts to regain control. So, extending or probing higher this morning remains likely, unless the opening 15 minutes of volatility were to trend down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrcsysx
The First Trade… Tale of two expirations.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap up grudgingly triggered its 1995.50 bias-up signal and grudgingly fulfilled its 1999.50 bias-up target. Exiting the bias environment back under its fulfilled bias-up signal down to 1989.50 indicated that grudging sponsorship was gone. But sellers proved to be more grudging than the morning’s buyers, and could not be attracted at all. So, a much more willing round of buying emerged, taking the noon hour to fresh session highs. The afternoon’s bias-up environment extended the rally to fulfill its 2007.50 bias-up target. And the rally extended through the cash session close to touch its ultimate objective at 2019.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
An early thrust higher tried to reignite the afternoon’s magic, and did touch 2023.00. But soon began reversing down to 2016.00. Bouncing back up to 2022.00 has been reversed down to lower lows testing 2014.00.
If, then…
Trading choppily overnight is proof that yesterday afternoon’s rally was a function of today’s expiration. That’s interesting, since it fulfilled a significant upside objective at 2019.50 and WedEX is forecasting a bearish afternoon. Meanwhile, this being expiration, trending through the opening 15 minutes of volatility can forecast trending throughout the day. And this being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2019.50 would be likely to maintain that recovery through 10:15 to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2016.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2019.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2007.50 would be likely to trigger the 2011.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Livestox Recording Oct 15, 2015
Thursday’s Livestox recording is below, and the stocks we addressed in order follow that. Please don’t hesitate posting follow-up questions to this blog post’s thread.
SPX — Rallying into expiration
CDE — Underperforming Gold
PAAS — Underperforming Gold
NGD — Seals bottom aove 3.42
GLD — Bottoming action
USO — Under 14.45 would target 12.85
RIG — Basing while waiting out Crude correction
HAL –Basing while waiting out Crude correction
CLF — Basing while waiting out Crude correction
CARA — Bounce to 17.75 would likely react down to fresh lows
INSY — Decline remains intact
GWPH — Targeting 67 ad 57 so long as 95 holds bounces
AAPL — Nothing bullish about the pattern
TWTR — Pullback to 28 area should launch next upleg to test 34 area
NFLX — Under 120 would seal a top
ORA — Recovery potential needs pullbacks to hold 34.90-35.40
FOLD — request
XON — Ongoing potential to 20.47
TRTC — Reiterating warning
TWMJF — Pullback to 1.35-1.40 should launch next upleg
XXII — Interesting bottoming pattern
SRNA — Still requires close above .18 to launch next upleg
CANN — Must hold 1.20 for pullback to be only a correction
MSRT –Under 1.81 concerned price action conflicting with rumors
MCIG –Monitoring for reaction up from .0175
VAPE –Pullback needs to hold .034 to maintain potential for $1