Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2027.00 | 2019.50 |
| …would target | 2032.75 | 2025.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2018.50 | 2011.00 |
| …would target | 2013.25 | 2005.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
I began noting during the noon hour that if extending the rally through the noon hour wasn’t rejected, then its 2007.50 renewed bias-up target would be only a formality. Retesting the 2014.00 prior high would be only a formality. The market was on a mission to neutralize all upside attractions — probably including 2019.50 — and fast.
Fast is how it was done. Fast is how it had to be done. Wednesday’s decline had gained traction, which was bearish, so the only way to reject it was by gapping up Thursday. Similarly, exiting Thursday morning’s bias environment back under its fulfilled bias-up signal was bearish, so it could be rejected only aggressively, too.
Rallying relentlessly throughout Thursday’s noon hour was as aggressive as it gets. Extending higher relentlessly throughout Thursday afternoon’s bias environment maintained the aggression. Like the proverbial shark needing to continue moving to avoid rolling over, like Satchel Paige saying “Don’t look back, you don’t want to know what might be gaining on you,” Thursday’s rally can’t afford to hesitate if it intends to extend higher.
And since it gained traction — the bias environment was exited above the noon hour’s high and the final hour was entered even higher — the only way to reject it immediately is by gapping down under a prior timing window’s low. That’s at least 2000.00, if not lower.
Details and mention of the WedEX and other markets coverage are discussed in the market Wrap, which was held early due to a scheduling conflict. Its recording is here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzjvymh
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
XP-Friendly || non-xp ilinc
Daily Spot… Gold arching.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s gap down extended intraday to test the three prior sessions’ 1.1370 support. More backing-and-filling can’t be precluded before resuming the rally to its 1.1595 target.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Trending up overnight and gapping up Thursday to within $4 of the target at 1191.70 reacted down into negative territory to 1174.00. Recovering nearly all of the post-open slide keeps alive the target, although I’m lowering it 20 cents to 1195.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Despite having ignored Gold’s rally, Silver spiked down in tandem with Gold at Thursday’s open. But, like Gold, it was recovered entirely, relatively more so. Nevertheless, not extending higher aggressively would be unlikely to maintain any shallower gains.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight highs touched the 159-22 room for noise above the 159-13. Trending back down from there at Thursday’s open then spent the balance of the session repeatedly testing the 158-23 gap that had attracted price higher. Back under 158-04 would signal momentum reversing down.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Thursday did not exploit Wednesday’s “ineffectual pessimism,” The morning’s EIA report kept price under pressure ranging at or under 46.00 for another ineffectual pessimism session.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Thursday to a fresh recovery high at 2.58 was reversed down hard by the EIA report — back to and through the 2.48 “lower prior highs.” There’s still room down to 2.43 without launching a new downleg. Back above 2.52 would put into play a test of 2.67.
Pre-close View… SPECIAL NOTE.
I’m unavailable the last half-hour today.
WE WILL HAVE MARKET WRAP EARLY AT 3:15 ET.
This afternoon’s 1995.50 bias-up signal was recovered during the noon hour. Its 2002.00 bias-up target was recovered at the 1:20 bias timing window. That renewed the bias-up signal, next targeting 2007.50.
2007.50 was just tested. Exiting the bias environment above it would next target 2011.00-2012.00. But that would likely be only a formality on the path up to 2019.50.
This recovery can still be reversed today. Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 or entering the final hour under 2002.00 would at least target 1995.50. Failing to hold above this morning’s ~2000.00 highs would suggest momentum is reversing down.
The origin of this rally has left behind Wednesday’s bearish close, and also this morning’s bearish bias environment exit. It’s clearly on a mission to neutralize attractions above. But the mission’s origin is not solid, so we know it’s only temporary, albeit currently in command.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 16, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two of Friday’s reports are reliable for influencing price action. Only one is high-profile, but both are released simultaneously and post-open, two elements that make them even likelier either to reverse or to accelerate any initial trending.
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET