Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Best efforts.
Has the third consecutive morning surge rolled over, too?.
Tuesday’s gap down immediately launched a rally back above Monday’s highs, and still closed under the morning’s low. Wednesday’s flat open also immediately rallied, but ended the morning under the morning’s lows (and ended the session even lower).
Now comes this morning’s gap up. Extending higher post-open was not immediate, as much time was spent ranging around the 1993.50 bias-up signal. Finally extending higher did quickly fulfill its 1999.50 bias-up target. But almost as quickly price has returned to the open’s 1991.25 lows. And lower to 1989.50.
All of which is still in positive territory. Well into positive territory.
However, the bias environment was exited back under its fulfilled bias-up signal. That’s not in itself a signal, but it does suggest that another rally leg will require forming another pattern and triggering it.
Otherwise, probing under yesterday’s lows down to 1979.00-1980.00 remains possible. Recovering 1993.50 and triggering the 1995.50 bias-up could leave behind fresh lows until Friday afternoon.
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2003.25 | 1995.50 |
| …would target | 2009.50 | 2002.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1995.50 | 1988.00 |
| …would target | 1990.50 | 1982.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS -UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Livestox Reminder
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Post-open Review… All gapped up and nowhere to go.
Not extending the gap up.
Gapping up above 1995.50-1998.50 would have negated the traction yesterday’s decline had gained.The open gapped up to this morning’s 1993.50 bias-up signal, and ranged choppily around it, but didn’t probe above 1995.50 until the first 15 minutes had almost lapsed.
Suspicious.
Bias-up did trigger. And dipping under it at 10:30 was still overlapping it, which doesn’t qualify for rejecting the 10:15 signal. And now a fresh post-open high is testing 1998.50.
The 1999.50 bias-up target may still be met. And may be probed up to 2002.00. But holding that gain would be questionable.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight rally to 2000.00 has reacted down to 1992.50. Maintaining a gap up above 1995.50–1998.50 remains possible, but must extend higher immediately to beat the 9:45 timing window. The alternative is probably a probe under yesterday’s lows.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsxhcwh