Posts by Rod David
Livestox during Thursday’s noon hour
Thursday, it is. I’ll send access instructions for Thursday’s Livestox session, which will begin at 12:15pm ET.
Mid-day Update… Bottomed?
Probe of overnight lows is recovered.
The open’s test of the 2001.50 bias-up signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 1988.00 bias-down signal. The extra detour had created potential for that test also visiting 1985.50. Regardless of how deep, only after probing overnight lows would a rally be credible.
In fact, 1988.00 was tested. Quickly. It was too late to invalidate the bias, and too early for the bias to be lapsing already. And RSIs were oversold. So, a lower low tested 1985.50. The bias environment began lapsing back at 1988.00, with RSIs diverging positively.
A bounce there worked out better, for awhile, reaching 1998.50. But the 1995.50 bias-up signal wasn’t recovered through 1:20, as a reaction down attacked 1991.00.
Now we’re waiting for the 2:00 Beige Book release. It’s not an earth-moving report, but it’s still capable of inhibiting price action until it becomes history.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Oct 15, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s pre-open CPI is both high-profile and reliably influential to price action. And any impact it does have then tends to be duplicated in reaction to other post-open reports.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
Loretta Mester Speaks
4:30 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2003.25 | 1995.50 |
| …would target | 2009.75 | 2002.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1994.75 | 1987.00 |
| …would target | 1989.75 | 1982.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Detour done.
Sellers refueled by the open’s bounce.
Not so much “unfinished business below” as the likelihood for testing 1988.00 has made me suspicious of any bounce gaining traction. But not holding 1995.50 resistance made the 2001.50 bias-up signal likely to be tested before its bounce could fail.
In fact, the open did recover 1995.50 and its recovery did touch 2001.50.
Then the bounce failed.
Reacting down into 10:15 triggered no-bias. And having held a test of the bias-up signal, an offsetting test of the bias-down signal was put in-play at… wait for it… 1988.00.
Since then, the bias-up signal’s rejection has extended down to fresh post-open lows at 1990.25. At least a test of the 1988.00 bias-down signal remains in-play, especially so long as 1995.50 isn’t recovered.