Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
A surge to fresh highs at 1998.50 was high enough to attract sellers, reversing price back into negative territory under 1993.50. That’s essentially the template we’ve been tracking, albeit shallower, that suggests testing 1987.00-1988.00 before a rally would be credible. That said, bouncing back above 1995.50 would start to suggest a modest morning bounce had become likelier.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcrpttf
The First Trade… Does yesterday afternoon have legs?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap down held its 1998.00 limit to signal that overnight selling was not bleeding into the cash session. The consequence was to reject both bias-down parameters and put into play both bias-up parameters. The 2016.00 bias-up target was only attacked to within 5 ticks, but it did not become “unfinished business above” since the bias environment was exited back under its 2011.00 bias-up signal. The balance of the session trended back down to fresh lows at 1993.50 support. Potential for extending down to 1988.00 created a compelling hold-short setup.
Overnight action’s new info…
The 1988.00 attraction was soon attacked to within 6 ticks. A 7-point range since then has been centered around 1993.50, which is being overlapped now.
If, then…
The hold-short for 1988.00 was considered within the context of its test being likely to react up overnight. Not already testing it and reacting up does create room for a lower test, whether by 1 point or by 2-1/2. The setup’s template for a pre-open recovery would still be possible — but keeping to the timetable would require a steeper recovery. Not yet probing fresh overnight lows before opening positive would be more likely to reverse back down.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1993.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 1988.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1987.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above2004.00 would be likely to trigger the 2001.50 bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2009.50 | 2001.50 |
| …would target | 2014.75 | 2007.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1995.75 | 1988.00 |
| …would target | 1990.50 | 1982.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Livestox cancelled
My bandwidth has suddenly shrunk to a slow crawl. The provider’s help desk is stumped and can’t offer a resolution time. So, today’s post-close Livestox isn’t looking good.
Shall we wait for Thursday morning, or would you rather we reschedule for after Wednesday’s close and skip Thursday? Let me know your preference and I’ll announce timing shortly.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Was Tuesday afternoon’s slide just defensive posturing ahead of high-profile earnings coming after the close? INTC warned, JPM missed, and being 21 points off the 2014.75 high seems prescient. But while 1993.50 could have held if tested by the open’s gap down, now it’s likelier to be probed down to 1988.00.
So, is a top in? Tuesday’s price action formed a bearish “pivot reversal” by gapping down counter-trend, recovering intraday to a new trend high, and then reversing back down to close under the morning’s low. But context is key, so it’s interesting that the setup formed after two sideways ranging sessions. Without trending into the pivot reversal, the trend isn’t actually reversed.
Recovering from an overnight dip down to 1988.00 that opens above 2004.00 would launch a probe above Tuesday’s high. The morning’s 2016.00 bias-up target doesn’t qualify as “unfinished business” but would likely be tested on the way to 2019.50. Regardless, the air remains very thin up here, so not rallying somehow or enough at Wednesday’s open would be vulnerable to extending down throughout the morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpfwjy
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
XP-Friendly || non-xp ilinc