Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… An unusual reversal of fortune.
Early rally becomes bigger slide.
This morning’s rally from 1998.00 up to 2014.75 was sliding already into the noon hour. But that had potential for being only a temporary correction.
It wasn’t.
The second half of the noon hour slid more steeply. That had potential for being an exhaustive low.
It wasn’t.
No relevant resistance has been recovered, let alone probed. In fact, the drop has been a singular downtrend of lower lows and lower highs. The downtrending persisted while the bias environment lapsed into the final hour, which tends to entrench the trend.
It has.
The next lower attraction is 1993.50, which would have sufficed as a low if tested this morning, but whose test now would likely break lower to 1988.00. Back above 2004.00 at any time would start to signal the drop had ended anyway.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday didn’t confirm Friday’s breakout, but that didn’t prevent initially probing higher Tuesday morning. However, nothing required that probe to extend higher, let alone to be maintained, and the balance of the sessino returned to its narrow ranging.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s attack on the rally’s 1169.00 target had reacted down into overnight trading as low as 1151.00. Tuesday’s recovery pierced a fresh high above 1167.00 with more upside remaining in-play.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Only slightly lower lows overnight as price continued ranging narrowly Tuesday back at or under last week’s highs.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially firming into Tuesday’s open was reversed back into negative territory into the afternoon, but that didn’t extend any more so than the open’s brief strength. That doesn’t suggest buyers are trying to exploit the opportunity.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s low from last week’s highs was retraced by 50% at Tuesday’s high. That’s not a fibonacci calculation, but it does confirm the bounce was relevant, and that the slide can resume.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down at Tuesday’s open was recovered to pierce back above Monday’s highs. But that was retraced entirely to probe the morning’s low. “Lower prior highs” at 2.48 held, still allowing early strength to persist.
Mid-day Update… The price of impatience.
An objective above remains outstanding.
This morning’s recovery and reversal into positive territory came within 5 ticks of the 2016.00 objective. That’s not close enough to satisfy its sponsorship, which had held a test of the 1999.50 bias-down target and recovered 2004.25 through 10:15.
Despite having become entrenched with higher objectives in-play, buyers didn’t exploit any earlier opportunity to rest on their laurels. That chicken has finally come home to roost. Entering the noon hour at 2007.50 — a fibonacci 38.2% of the morning’s rally and also yesterday afternoon’s resistance — has broken lower to 2002.25.
There’s room down to 2000.00 before suggesting trending might be reversing down. Actually resuming the recovery won’t be signaled from under 2006.00-2007.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Oct 14, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s econ calendar is less busy than it appears, but very influential. The pre-open PPI is reliable for influencing price action. The afternoon’s Beige Book is high-profile and generates a reaction, too.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
*Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2019.00 | 2011.00 |
| …would target | 2023.75 | 2016.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2013.00 | 2005.25 |
| …would target | 2007.50 | 1999.50 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.