Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Champing at the bit.
Chipping away at the afternoon highs.
The final hour of the day is essentially positioning for the next session. At least, the current day’s influences will have run their course. There’s no requirement to trend higher, but the only attractions are above, so this session is free to start trending up.
2007.50 resistance has been tested and retested and double secret retested all afternoon. The bias environment exit and final hour’s entry didn’t gain traction, but there is no sell signal. So, suddenly piercing fresh afternoon highs above 2007.50 gets a benefit of the doubt for being able to trend into the close.
Looking forward, assuming the balance of the session does trend, launching from a narrow range would make fresh highs likely to reverse back down. So, I’m giving the current fresh afternoon highs only so much benefit of the doubt.
Daily Spot… Gravity.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s surge didn’t extend Monday, and barely enhanced intraday volatility.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Initially trending higher overnight to attack the 1169.00 target was retraced back to Monday’s high, but not into negative territory, maintaining the rally’s momentum.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming ahead of Monday’s open still barely even attacked last week’s 16.08-16.11 highs. But the session closed positive, keeping alive the recovery’s momentum and its potential to become a new rally leg.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The cash market was closed for Columbus Day which continued to inhibit trending beyond either sell signal currently being tested.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s dip attacking “lower prior highs” at or under 47.00 helps to confirm the recent surge wasn’t sponsored by strong hands, but it doesn’t yet reverse the trend down. That would be signaled by closing under 46.00.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Flat narrow ranging didn’t offer any early strength that would have been credible for extending higher intraday, and which still would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 13, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s Fed speaker may be high-profile, but his influence on intraday price action is less likely to be very influential since his comments are pre-open. No other relevant econ report is due, but the quarterly earnings onslaught continues.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
James Bullard Speaks
8:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2019.00 | 2011.00 |
| …would target | 2024.00 | 2016.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2012.00 | 2004.00 |
| …would target | 2007.50 | 1999.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Rubber and glue.
Choppy ranging around unchanged.
Nothing about the session pre-open had suggested trending about to begin. Plenty had suggested trending wouldn’t succeed if attempted. So, trending to either end of the range was likely to react back to its other end.
First trying to trend down would be likely to bounce from “lower prior highs” at 2003.50. The open’s dip to 2003.00 snapped back up to test Friday’s late 2008.25 high up to 2008.75. Those prior highs held, and “unchanged” at 2005.00-2006.00 attracted price right back down.
An unpredictable swing has developed since then, albeit predictably within the range. Neither of the 2001.00 or 2011.00 bias signals has been touched, so there is no requirement for an offsetting test of the other.
A fresh post-open low is now attacking the overnight lows, which are within 3 ticks of the 2001.00 bias-down signal. Breaking under it through 10:30 would invalidate that it had held through 10:15. Otherwise, this should be another end of the extreme, getting ready to bounce to (or through) the other end.