Rod David – Page 1626 – If, Then… Market Timing

The Universe, week of Oct 12 2015…

By Rod David | October 12, 2015 - 10:05 am |

[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]

My morning note Friday on VAPE cleared the email approval hurdle after several minutes, which was enough time to surge through resistance. Having been chipped away, the potential for extending through resistance is greater. Regardless, this is only for a corrective bounce and not for a durable recovery.

Not, yet.

There are a lot of VAPEs starting to form — not necessarily the same profile or liquidity, but ongoing declines showing signs that at least a corrective rally will soon develop. Note that this does NOT include stocks which continue printing lower and lower lows (I’m talking to you, MCIG).

Marijuana Stock Universe for October 12, 2015
Reference this table during stock reactions
4-week	# up:	8	7.92%
trends*	# flat:	15	14.85%
	# down:	78	77.23%
*The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks.

symbol	support	resistance	4-week trend
ACGX	0.000	0.003	down
AERO	1.000	1.950	down
AGTK	0.000	0.009	down
AMMJ	0.070	0.182	down
ARNA	1.490	2.900	down
ATTBF	0.035	0.075	down
AVTC	0.000	0.400	down
BLOZF	0.130	0.340	down
BLPG	0.015	0.086	down
BRDT	0.012	0.048	down
BTFL	0.071	0.232	down
CAFS	0.001	0.011	down
CANL	0.440	0.740	down
CANN	0.970	1.330	flat
CANV	0.570	0.860	down
CARA	14.250	18.870	down
CBDS	1.630	2.660	flat
CBGI	0.000	0.005	down
CBIS	0.020	0.041	flat
CGRW	0.360	0.610	flat
CHUM	n/a	n/a	down
CNAB	0.210	0.380	down
DEWM	0.001	0.003	down
DIGP	0.170	0.400	down
DSCR	0.000	0.025	down
EAPH	0.005	0.013	down
EDXC	0.007	0.019	down
ENCC	n/a	n/a	down
ENDO	0.006	0.018	down
ENRT	0.017	0.037	down
ERBB	0.002	0.004	flat
ETST	n/a	n/a	flat
EXMT	0.000	0.004	up
FITX	0.004	0.078	up
FSPM	0.000	0.250	down
FULL	2.960	3.160	down
FWDG	0.000	0.002	down
GBLX	0.270	0.460	up
GRCU	0.000	0.004	flat
GRNH	0.023	0.067	down
GWPH	86.620	111.000	down
HEMP	0.050	0.107	down
ICBU	0.000	0.003	down
IGRW	0.000	0.002	down
IMLFF	0.100	0.180	down
INCC	0.000	0.002	down
INSY	25.050	32.100	down
ITNS	0.001	0.005	down
KAYS	0.067	0.187	flat
LATF	0.000	0.001	down
LXRP	0.098	0.205	up
MCIG	0.023	0.052	down
MDBX	0.062	0.150	flat
MDCN	0.000	0.001	down
MDRM	0.008	0.025	down
MINE	0.000	0.002	down
MJMD	0.000	0.015	down
MJMJ	0.000	0.001	down
MJNA	0.031	0.042	down
MNTR	0.310	0.620	down
MSRT	1.410	1.880	flat
MYEC	0.014	0.021	down
MYHI	0.013	0.100	down
NDEV	0.016	0.053	down
NMUS	0.218	1.215	down
NRTI	0.000	0.002	down
NTRR	0.022	0.046	flat
OGRMF	0.110	0.310	down
OSLH	0.000	0.001	down
OXIS	0.015	0.027	down
PHOT	0.010	0.030	down
PLPL	0.080	0.125	down
PMCB	0.080	0.112	flat
PNTV	0.001	0.007	down
PZOO	0.004	0.008	down
QEDN	0.000	0.003	down
REDG	0.000	0.003	down
RFMK	0.000	0.002	down
RSSFF	0.030	0.100	down
SING	0.005	0.012	down
SKTO	0.000	0.004	down
SPRWF	0.082	0.165	down
SRNA	0.100	0.185	up
STEV	0.049	0.072	flat
TAUG	0.003	0.005	down
THCZ	0.075	0.013	up
TRTC	0.078	0.111	down
TURV	0.630	0.89	down
TWMJF	1.070	1.280	down
UPOT	0.040	0.125	down
USEI	0.000	0.003	down
VAPE	0.046	1.000	down
VAPR	0.000	0.050	down
VGPR	0.000	0.002	down
VHUB	0.025	0.048	up
VPCO	0.400	0.840	down
VPOR	0.000	0.001	down
WDHR	0.000	0.002	down
WOGI	0.005	0.013	flat
XTRM	0.001	0.004	flat
XXII	0.085	1.100	up

Posted in Bigger Picture

10 Comments

Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)

By Rod David | October 12, 2015 - 9:15 am

The reaction down from touching Friday’s 2012.50 high has settled back in to the range’s 2006.00-2007.00 midpoint. That’s also where the past two sessions close, reflecting a degree of comfort there, if not also complacency. In either case, trending in one direction or the other is difficult to start, and difficult to predict, so be careful not to “force” trades just for the sake of trading. If trending attempts are less likely to extend, then they should be monitored for signs of reversing back into the range and possibly also to the range’s other end.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzrrkc

Posted in Pre-market Tour, S&P

The First Trade… At least there’s a parade.

By Rod David | October 12, 2015 - 7:47 am

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
.Friday’s session ranged sideways widely, probing fresh highs above last month’s 2011.75 prior high and retesting 2000.00 as support. But the close was essentially flat-to-positive above 2006.00, and no traction was gained either way

Overnight action’s new info…
Gapping down slightly Sunday night then rallied gradually until touching Friday’s 2012.50 high coming out of Europe’s opens. A quick reaction down from there has been ranging more narrowly around unchanged at 2006.00-2007.00.

If, then…
Today is a Federal holiday that closes banks and bond markets. This reduces participation and liquidity, and therefore also volatility. Trending is difficult to get started, but also difficult to stop once begun. Probing last month’s prior highs more significantly remains likely up to 2019.50. But not with any particular timing, so today is vulnerable to anything.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1999.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2001.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2005.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2012.50 would be likely to trigger the 2011.00 bias-up signal… Remember that holding the test of a bias signal through 10:15 would put into play an offsetting test of the opposite bias signal.

Posted in S&P, The First Trade

Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)

By Rod David | October 9, 2015 - 4:26 pm

Thursday afternoon’s buyers had gained traction, so strong hands knew the rally wasn’t reversing down. But typically they’re also rewarded for their, ahem, foresight. Yet neither Friday morning’s or afternoon’s bias environments trended up. Downside potential remains limited until probing higher highs — presumably up to 2019.50 since the attraction up to 2011.75 has been neutralized.

Monday’s government holiday introduces a wild card into the timing. But unless new objectives are created along the way, fresh highs is the next opportunity to end what is approaching a two-week old corrective rally.

Details and other markets coverage INCLUDING BIGGER PICTURE are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkcczc

There’s no Saturday Review this weekend, but Bigger Picture was addressed in the video linked above.
The chaRTroom will NOT be available for Sunday evening’s Globex open, not until after midnight due to travel.

Posted in Market Wrap, S&P

Morning Bias

By Rod David | October 9, 2015 - 4:19 pm

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET)	SPX	ES
Bias-up: above	2019.00	2011.00
…would target	2024.00	2016.00
Bias-down: under	2009.00	2001.00
…would target	2004.00	1996.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS		FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

Posted in Bias-parameters, S&P