Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Last chance to grab the golden ring.
Window re-opens for a rally leg.
The offsetting test of this morning’s 1999.50 bias-down signal was fulfilled while exiting the noon hour. Sellers haven’t had any other effect since then, and now the afternoon’s bias environment is almost finished lapsing.
A rally leg is vulnerable to extending higher so long as 2004.25 holds as support. Actually extending higher through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would be very helpful confirmation. Regardless, the only unfinished business is above.
The decline is vulnerable to resuming, but there’s no inflection point to signal it. But probing under 1999.50 through 3:10-3:20 would be the last opportunity for sellers to be taken seriously today.
REMINDER: THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND. BE SURE TO ATTEND OR TO WATCH TODAY’S POST-CLOSE MARKET WRAP FOR A BIGGER PICTURE REVIEW.
Daily Spot… Gold makes a break for it.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday filled the 1.1370 gap back up to prior highs. Closing above or below the gap for two consecutive sessions would be the first available signal of whether the break higher is durable, or else peaking..
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s FOMC reaction had ultimately resolved down to fill the gap back to Thursday’s open around 1137.50. Holding it would allow the rally to resume, which it did overnight by probing fresh highs up to 1159.00. The rally remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 1148.00 as support.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Holding the 15.55 pullback limit’s test Thursday still hasn’t resumed the rally, as Friday ranged widely around Thursday’s close.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s overnight bounce didn’t prevent Friday morning’s fresh lows, but the 156-16 sell signal held its test to avoid confirming the 157-24 sell signal’s break..
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Not confirming Wednesday’s breakout did not equate to being a sell signal, but Friday’s probe of fresh highs held Thursday’s high to suggest that buyers have expended all available energy without gaining traction for the effort.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday morning’s subdued trading didn’t offer any strength to take credibly, perhaps because of the impending weekend. The same setup applies Monday, and early strength would be credible for extending higher intraday targeting 2.67.
Mid-day Update… Sellers done?
Fresh session lows are keeping alive volatility.
I had warned upon entering the noon hour that just ranging sideways in this pattern would quash any potential trending for the day. The noon hour did not maintain the range.
Probing fresh lows during the noon hour has extended down to satisfy the unfinished business below at this morning’s 1999.50 bias-down signal. It was just tested down to 1998.75.
Also being tested is this afternoon’s 1999.00 bias-down signal target. It’s not yet triggered exceeded with the bias timing window having arrived. No-bias A satisfied bias-down means the bias environment’s upper-end should be defined by its 2011.00 upper-end (bias-up signal) if tested. Back above 2001.75 would start to signal momentum is reversing up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 12, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Treasury futures trade on Monday, but not bonds themselves. The thinness inhibits its use for laying off risk, which inhibits stock market participation. So, the mid-morning Fed speaker’s comments might impact price more greatly than normal.
US Holiday: Columbus Day
Markets Open, Banks Closed
*Charles Evans Speaks
10:30 AM ET
Lael Brainard Speaks
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2019.25 | 2011.00 |
| …would target | 2024.00 | 2016.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2012.25 | 2004.25 |
| …would target | 2007.25 | 1999.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.