Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Thin air.
Rally tries to resume, but fails..
The pre-open rally to 2014.00 had reacted down to 2016.00 into the open. A post-open bounce to 2012.25 has reacted down to 2002.50.
Along the way, the 2011.75 attraction above was retested intraday for the first time. The 2011.00 bias-up signal was also tested, and rejected through 10:15.
This is a no-bias environment. Having held a test of one bias signal, an offsetting test of the opposite bias signal is in-play at the 1999.50 bias-down signal. This will delay rewarding yesterday’s buyers until this afternoon, which is today’s second likeliest scenario.
That attraction below at 1999.50 can be avoided by exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back above its 2011.00 bias-up signal without having probed any lower after 10:15. Otherwise, that 1999.50 attraction becomes “unfinished business below.”
So long as this morning’s weakness (ranging narrowly around unchanged is weakness?) doesn’t evolve into a deeper downleg, this morning’s backing-and-filling should recover this afternoon to probe fresh highs.
Stock notes… Fri Oct 9, 2015…
REMINDER: Next week’s post-close Livestox that normally happens on Monday WILL INSTEAD happen on Tuesday. More information to come…
VAPE — I’m resuming close monitoring as the pattern may be forming a near-term bottom. Back above .046 would target .10. Volume patterns are already compelling as .038 is being tested.
TWTR — This was my top immediate timing pick during the past two Livestox, especially Monday after 24 had held another test as support. Yesterday tested 31.50, with more upside expected. But at this stage I would rather stalk a pullback to 28 instead of adding into strength.
Latest post — Be sure to monitor the comments sections of current posts. Good ideas are being posted there, and I’m commenting on them.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The pre-open recovery has extended to fresh highs, and also through the 2011.75 attraction to 2014.00. The 2011.00 bias-up signal (+/- 3 ticks) seems to be the bullish line in the sand whose recovery when it matters will matter a lot, with the next higher objective being 2019.50. Not recovering the 2011.00 area would suggest backing-and-filling this morning to delay rallying until the afternoon. I’m not a seller in positive territory, but exiting the open in negative territory would suggest testing the 1999.50 bias-down signal ahead.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyftyjs
The First Trade… The go-ahead?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday morning was mechanical. Its sideways ranging held relevant support at 1977.00 through its relevant 10:15 time to create upside targets at 1998.00-1999.00. The afternoon’s FOMC Minutes release was as responsible for creating that mechanical morning, as it was for breaking it. Already rallying before the news triggered a spike up that eventually extended to within 3 points of last month’s 2011.75 high. Closing above 2000.00 kept alive potential fo rewarding the afternoon’s buyers for gaining traction, having exited the bias environment above the noon hour’s highs and entering the final hour even higher.
Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy sideways action has done nothing to contradict the upside traction, or to fulfill it prematurely. Probing fresh highs up to 2010.50 greeted Europe’s opens by plunging down to 1999.00. That has been recovered almost entirely to within 3 ticks. Each extreme is within a couple of ticks of this morning’s bias signals, suggesting that the ongoing pattern’s influence remains intact.
If, then…
Traction gained in the afternoon is usually rewarded the following morning by extending in that direction. Already extending much higher.that afternoon can moot the signal, but the late dip back down to 2000.00 neutralized that concern. Recently, trending sharply overnight has tended to fulfill that reward, but that’s not a factor currently.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2000.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1999.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2011.75 would be likely to trigger the 2011.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Is this leg coming to an end? Its 2011.75 objective was attacked to within 3 ticks Thursday afternoon. That was last month’s high, printed during Fed Chair Yellen’s press conference. The attraction back up to it was put into play earlier this week by probing the lower-end of that session.
A late reaction down still managed to close above 2000.00 to keep alive potential for extending higher Friday. Thursday afternoon’s buyers gained traction, which also keeps alive that upside potential. None of which prevents initially dipping overnight, or even through the open.
So long as sellers don’t retake control anyway Friday, the retest of 2011.75 should visit 2019.00. Retesting 2011.75-2019.00 early enough could reverse down sharply into the weekend.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzjvsbj
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:the ilinc room only… non-xp ilinc