Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2019.00 | 2011.00 |
| …would target | 2024.00 | 2016.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2007.00 | 1999.50 |
| …would target | 2002.00 | 1994.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… Spittin’ distance.
Today’s FOMC behind us, last month’s FOMC ahead of us.
Huh?
This afternoon’s impending FOMC Minutes release is really neither here nor there. Little if anything about it is influential. Its surprises are usually irrelevant. Its real impact is in inhibiting price action ahead of its release.
So, this morning’s pattern was unlikely to extend higher, especially without gapping up. Filling the gap back to yesterday’s close and neutralizing the bias-up signal’s attraction were at first magnetic attractions above. They became repellent as trending ahead of FOMC anything is unlikely.
That repellent took price down low enough to enable a knee-jerk reaction too FOMC. Spiking up to the afternoon’s 1996.00 bias-up target was retraced to 1986.00. But that has been recovered to its next higher target at 2000.00.
And 2000.00 is sticking, not being rejected. So, the bias environment began lapsing above the noon hour’s range and the final hour is being entered above the bias environment’s high.
Buyers gained traction, but holding 2000.00 or not could make a difference. Closing above 2000.00 could extend higher tomorrow without delay. Closing under 2000.00 today can’t be assured of avoiding an interim dip.
Daily Spot… Action in the gaps.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
There is no active signal, so Thursday’s probe above 1.1265 resistance doesn’t have any predictive value, regardless of it also extending intraday to probe last Friday’s 1.1330 high..
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having filled the gap Wednesday back to the 2-1/2 week old close, and then closing flat-to-positive after reacting into negative territory, Thursday’s gap down was not expected to extend lower. In fact, it was retraced entirely back up to Wednesday’s “higher prior lows” as resistance.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher to 16.10 through Wednesday never altered the pattern to raise its pullback limit any higher than 15.55. Thursday’s gap down had probed under it to 15.37, but still overlapping it keeps alive the potential for recovering the gap down and then resuming the rally.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
More flat ranging ahead Thursday’s auction and FOMC Minutes came and went, without budging beyond its recent narrow range supported by the 157-24 sell signal. The door remains open to fill the gap back up to 158-24 before a more convincing break under the 157-24 and 156-16 sell signals.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Not confirming Tuesday’s breakout Wednesday had not reversed the trend down, but Thursday only firmed back to Wednesday’s high, aided by bullish comments from OPEC about future demand.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from neither a position of strength nor of weakness — mostly the latter — enabled a favorable reaction that returned back up to Wednesday’s highs. Already having neutralized the gap above at 2.51, extending through it could target a higher gap outstanding at 2.67.
Mid-day Update… Hostage to headlines.
Upside attraction neutralized, FOMC catalyst awaited.
Holding the open’s test of this morning’s 1979.00 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 1990.00 bias-up signal. Surging into and out of noon attacked 1990.00to within 3 ticks, neutralizing its attraction.
It didn’t take long for a reaction down to 1984.50. Partly from having satisfied buyers, and partly from posturing defensively ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC news. A 4-point bounce resolved down, too, this time attacking 1980.00. Perhaps a little more defensiveness with the 30-year auction coming.
Now another bounce is testing 1988.00. FOMC news is at the top of the hour. Having avoided positive territory for this long, a rally could extend more durably. Regardless, there is no requirement to react in either direction.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 9, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s two Fed speakers follow Thursday afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. They’re normally high-profile, but the timing adds extra focus on their comments, so also the potential for extra impact from them.
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
9:15 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
1:30 PM ET