Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Oct 8, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s BOE policy statement tends to get a reaction, but not so much or so reliably as the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes release. Meanwhile, the 30-year auction can inhibit price action, and then the Fed speaker can spruce it back up.
BOE Monetary Policy & Minutes
noon london
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks
1:00 PM ET
30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
**FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
*John Williams Speaks
3:30 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1991.00 | 1981.00 |
| …would target | 1996.00 | 1986.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1980.50 | 1970.50 |
| …would target | 1974.00 | 1964.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Over and out?
Early surge drops back.
Every timing window that mattered through the open was able to extend the per-open rally. Momentum did not falter until after entering the bias environment at 10:15, and probing new highs up to 1991.25.
And then it faltered a lot. Triggered by the EIA report on Crude Oil, a 20-point reversal down is exiting the bias environment back within yesterday afternoon’s range.
It’s still positive territory, and it’s still above this morning’s bias-down signal. It may be too late for the bias environment to begin lapsing above a prior high, but entering the noon hour back above this morning’s 1976.00 bias-up signal would suggest a detour was ending.
Entering the noon hour under 1964.00 would suggest instead this isn’t a detour at all.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The open is being greeted while still ranging around yesterday morning’s 1982.00 high. A large Symmetrical Triangle has formed, whose influence must be obvious during the opening 15 minutes to have any influence on the intraday at all. That means not yet reversing initial trending by 9:45 would be likelier to extend in that direction.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfykrwz
The First Trade… Back to work. (The work of a corrective bounce.)
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
But for the morning’s momentary probe above Monday’s 1980.00 high, Tuesday was an “inside day,” contained entirely within Monday’s range. It might have seemed more substantial in the moment, being under pressure the entire day. But that was the expectation for the day before it even began, and the session didn’t deviate from its purpose. The afternoon’s fluctuation did not reflect buyers or sellers gaining traction.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s lows were probed down to 1960.50 in reaction to high-profile earnings misses (setting the stage for the quarterly earnings onslaught?). The balance of the night rallied back to and through Tuesday’s high to 1985.50. A pullback into yesterday’s range at 1975.50 is now trying to resume the rally, currently testing 1980.00.
If, then…
The rally need not resume without delay, but it must resume on its first intraday attempt. The overnight action provides a template — probing fresh highs, pulling back into the range, and then… Post-open action can duplicates this overnight pattern, either extending the rally attempt immediately, or following a pullback into the range. But pulling back too deeply, before upside momentum is re-established, would be vulnerable to launching a new downleg to probe under overnight lows.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1981.00 would be likely also to exceed the 1981.00 bias-up target (same level as each other) at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 1974.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1976.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.