Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1986.00 | 1976.00 |
| …would target | 1991.00 | 1981.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1974.00 | 1964.00 |
| …would target | 1968.50 | 1958.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap
But for the morning’s momentary probe above Monday’s 1980.00 high, Tuesday was an “inside day,” contained entirely within Monday’s range. It might have seemed more substantial, being under pressure the entire day. But recall that was the expectation for the day before it even began. The rally need not resume without delay. And it won’t resume soon if Wednesday’s open is already trending down. Otherwise, the recovery is vulnerable again to resuming Wednesday. Check back for the morning’s First Trade blog post.
Daily Spot… Bigger bounces.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday and extending higher is retesting the 1.1265 bounce limit, suggesting that a move down is unlikely, and likely at least to probe higher .
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Resuming the rally Tuesday is now another multi-session breakout, needing second consecutive session’s confirmation if a new uptrend is underway.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending sharply higher Tuesday to test 16.00 doesn’t have any near-term higher objectives, and there’s still room for a pullback down 15.55 without reversing the trend down.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially following-through Tuesday on Monday’s break under the 157-24 sell signal was retraced to the signal itself, still needing confirmation that the trend is reversing down.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Breaking higher from a multi-session range, even if only on news, still could be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Wednesday. I’m otherwise not bullish.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Initial strength Tuesday didn’t extend. I still trust early strength as being credible for extending, but would also want to see the resolution of filling the gap back up to 2.52..
Mid-day Update… Backing-and-filling has its limits.
This morning has followed the entire day’s script.
Whatever’s left today, it seems that I won’t be available to observe and annotate it. Not in its entirety.
The offsetting test of this morning’s 1972.00 bias-down signal was probed at 10:30 while 1-minute RSI diverged positively, launching bounces to 1976.00 and 1977.00.
With the bias environment lapsing, back under 1974.00 was likely to resume the drop to retest the 1964.00 overnight low. And it was attacked to within 2 ticks before firming into the noon hour.
As today was expected to be all about backing-and-filling, we should remember that this action has room down to 1956.00. The overnight low is now being probed down to 1962.50, so backing-and-filling appears to have resumed.
It might seem like trending, being so far removed from yesterday’s highs and close, but it’s still within the context of a correction. The entire room down to 1956.00 need not be utilized. But it does need to hold, preferably intraday — and especially 1960.00 through the close to maintain the rally’s upward momentum and its potential back to last month’s FOMC high.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Oct 7, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar isn’t notable. Perhaps the 10-year can cause some hesitation for being an unknown. But otherwise the day’s reports are neither high-profile nor influential to price action.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET