Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1984.00 | 1974.00 |
| …would target | 1989.00 | 1979.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1974.00 | 1964.00 |
| …would target | 1966.75 | 1956.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Afraid of the dark.
Overnight range only now being retested.
The pre-open probe to fresh highs above 1973.00 extended higher to test this morning’s 1981.00 bias-up signal. Without gapping up above it the signal wasn’t going to trigger, not since yesterday afternoon’s buyers had not gained traction. And bars probing above it still overlapped it, so it was never actually exceeded.
Holding a test of the 1981.00 bias-up signal through 10:15 put into play an offsetting test of the 1972.00 bias-down signal. Little time was wasted extending down to attack it, but it wasn’t met until too late to invoke the grace period for possibly triggering it.
Still testing the bias-down signal at 10:30 had a slightly different outcome. Slightly. Legs probing under it to 1969.50 were still overlapping the 1972.00 bias-down signal. It was deep enough to consider the no-bias signal invalidated, but not enough to ignore the 1-minute RSI diverging positively.
That positive divergence at support launched a bounce attacking 1976.00. Back under 1973.50 might launch another dip — remember, this session should be about backing-and-filling the rally, so the likeliest resolutions are those that bring the defensive teams back on the field.
Special notes about today…
- If you’re in the New York City area, please join me for cocktails and apps Wednesday evening at 6:30pm ET. We’ll be at Hama Sushi & Sake, 11 W. 51st. Please email me your mobile number by tomorrow afternoon if you’re coming.
- I’m traveling this afternoon, so I’ll be unavailable for the session’s last two hours after 2:00pm ET. This means no post-market Wrap.
- The post-market summary and bias parameters will be available later tonight.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The bounce from overnight lows is trying only now to extend. Too late to be taken seriously, or a clever preservation of buying energy? A recovery above 1976.00 maintained through 9:45 would suggest the latter, at least to avoid triggering bias-down. Testing the 1972.00 bias-down signal and holding it through 10:15 would also create an objective to probe above yesterday’s highs. But losing this last-minute sentiment battle could trigger bias-down, and keep the session on defense.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
ttps://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shwjpvh
The First Trade… Defense.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday’s session rode the wave of the combination of follow-through from Friday’s inverted session-long setup and from that afternoon’s buyers gaining traction. That, and having closed Friday at the 1942.00 objective without rejecting it, then already testing the next higher 1960.00 objective overnight without rejecting it. But only hovering up to 1980.00 beyond the afternoon bias environment’s exit prevented buyers from gaining new traction.
Overnight action’s new info…
Gapping down to 1971.00-1973.00 initially bounced to 1975.25, but then trended down through Europe’s opens to 1963.50. A bounce to 1973.00 has been retraced 61.8% back down to 1967.25.
If, then…
The rally had become extended without gaining traction, making a pullback likely if today’s open doesn’t gap up above yesterday’s highs. That’s not impossible from a 10-15 point discount two hours before the open. And it’s not very very difficult in this wide-ranging environment. But gapping up is unlikely after having traded at a deficit throughout the entire night. Nevertheless, opening above the overnight highs could still probe above yesterday’s highs temporarily..
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1976.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1972.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1970.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 1965.00 would be a little likelier also to exceed the 1964.00 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal, next targeting 1956.00.