Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot… Bond or bust.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s break wasn’t confirmed Thursday, but Friday’s spike up on payrolls didn’t hold its probe above 1.1265. Fresh lows remain in-play, especially so long as 1.1213 is now broken as support.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A little extra dose of pessimism further under 1117.00 ahead of Friday’s Employment report facilitated a spike up to attack 1141.50, proving the pullback had ended.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Spiking up Friday morning and extending higher to test 15.25 raised the pullback limit to 15.10 to maintain the pullback has reversed up.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Spiking up on Friday’s payrolls report to 160-20 was retraced back down to the 158-18 prior highs, now raising the actionable sell signal to a close under 157-24.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s choppiness may have been a warning shot at the growing likelihood for breaking lower to and probably through 42.80.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s fresh low didn’t extend, but it’s premature for Monday to offer a reversal setup.
Mid-day Update… Inversion, indeed.
Session-long decline inverts and then some.
This morning’s bias environment began lapsing above the “session-long decline” signal, and held up into noon. This is without the morning’s bias environment having probed a fresh low. Consequently, the session-long decline inverted.
Each remaining timing window with one exception should probe above its prior timing window’s high.
The noon hour’s 1905.00 entry took that to heart and rallied 15 points. Its exit extended 6 points higher to 1926.50. That raises the bar on subsequent timing windows. In fact, the current afternoon bias environment has dipped to 1917.00.
Only one timing window remains, so it should probe above the bias environment’s 1924.50 high (notice that’s not a new session high, just above its prior timing window’s high). Nothing in particular must happen after that.
The bias environment hasn’t yet lapsed, and may yet probe a fresh high. If so, then the last timing window would have no requirement — and it would be free to decline.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 5, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s calendar is unusually busy for a Monday. That’s in addition to containing two reports with reliable track records for influencing price action.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
*ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1917.00 | 1907.00 |
| …would target | 1923.00 | 1913.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1905.25 | 1895.25 |
| …would target | 1899.00 | 1889.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Laurel-resting gone amok.
Session-long decline taking an early break, or broken?
Gapping down under yesterday afternoon’s 1891.75 bias environment low — and then maintaining the gap down through the opening 15 minutes of volatility to test 1883.00 — has triggered a “session-long decline” setup. Every timing window but one should probe under its prior timing window’s low.
Perhaps that one counter-trend timing window is this morning’s bias environment. It has only rallied, from testing 1883.00 to attack 1906.00. Now, every remaining timing window should probe under its prior timing window’s low. That would suggest a big noon hour drop.
Otherwise, perhaps the session-long decline has inverted. Only one opportunity remains to signal its inversion: Exiting the bias environment back above the 1891.75 level that created it. It was part of a consolidation up to 1898.50, so we’ll give the setup a benefit of the doubt if that range is retraced by noon, and then soon broken.
Inverting the setup would require every remaining timing window to probe above its prior timing window’s high. Otherwise, fresh session lows are likely before the close.