Posts by Rod David
Today’s Livestox
Click here to enter the 12:15 ET Livestox session. Post any stock requests to the blog’s comments section (in this or the prior post), or attend the live session to ask there.
[Mark down the next Livestox session 5:00pm ET Monday. It will switch to the Anymeeting platform that is entirely mobile device friendly.]
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Payrolls reacted down a bit. A bit to the 100th degree. Just moments after finally probing between Wednesday night’s 1927.50-1929.50 highs, the report’s reaction was attacking 1900.00. That has since extended under yesterday’s 1890.25 low, down to 1885.50.
All downside attractions from yesterday are neutralized, so the question is whether more will be created. There’s the afternoon bias environment’s 1891.75 low, which could form a “session-long decline” setup. There’s Tuesday’s 1889.75 high, whose break through 9:45 would put into play a retest of everything below it.
Details and other markets coverage (other markets coverage is in a separate recording to be linked when available) are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shwjzby -1-
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/yptwmhf -2-
The First Trade… Buyers at the gate.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday was the second consecutive session that found at least two ways for sellers to expend energy without reversing the trend down. Yesterday’s session went so far as to allow the afternoon’s bias-down to trigger. Its 1981.50 target had been met already during the noon hour, which opened the door to rallying above the satisfied 1897.00 bias-down signal, despite still being a bias-down environment. While that’s clearly possible, it did leave “unfinished business below” at the 1897.00 bias-down signal. But it didn’t prevent triggering three buy signals as the balance of the session rallied back to test the open’s 1917.00 high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Intraday action seems to have been duplicated overnight. There was an early surge to 1923.00, it eventually reacted down into negative territory at 1913.00, and the balance of the session has recovered earlier highs. And higher, testing 1925.00.
If, then…
The overnight high is still a little short of Wednesday night’s 1927.50-1929.50 highs, but it’s above Thursday’s intraday high. The market seems to have wanted to greet this morning’s Employment Situation report optimistically. But no relevant level was recovered on a closing basis while expending so much buying pressure. It’s essentially the inverse of intraday action that has been letting sellers expend energy without gaining traction for their effort. The intraday selling efforts didn’t attract new sponsorship, but the buying efforts still can. Whichever way the bounce from Tuesday’s low may resolve this morning, it could be at least 70 points in either direction.
First Trade…
There are no preliminary indications ahead of an Employment Situation report.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday afternoon’s recovery ended at the morning’s 1915.00 bias-up target. The rally greeting Thursday’s open — as with the rally that greeted Wednesday’s open — was corrected intraday and then recovered into the close. The patterns differ in several key ways, like developing exclusively in positive territory or not. But they can’t be confused with greeting Friday’s payrolls report pessimistically.
The question is whether the Employment Situation report is being greeted from a position of strength, or overly-optimistic. How about, a happy medium, almost equilibrium. The market wants to react favorably to the news, but will have difficulty maintaining that bullishness much past Friday’s open.
Upside potential includes retesting Wednesday night’s 1929.50 high, 1942.00 and 1960.00. None of which is an actual attraction. Downside attractions begin at Thursday afternoon’s 1897.00 bias-down signal. Probing above it during a bias-down environment requires its eventual retest. A small reach, but opening it could reveal a bigger hole below.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfyftfc
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
XP-Friendly || non-xp ilinc
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1925.75 | 1915.75 |
| …would target | 1931.25 | 1921.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1914.00 | 1904.00 |
| …would target | 1907.00 | 1897.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.