Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Sold out performances.
Another way to trap weak-handed sellers.
When this afternoon’s 1897.00 bias-down signal triggered at 1:20, its 1891.25 bias-down target had been met already. Still, being a bias-down environment, the bias signal should define its upper-end.
If 1897.00 defines this afternoon’s bias environment, it’s as an inflection point. Breaking through it held 2 pullback limits on the way to testing yesterday morning’s 1907.00 high. And now another recovery’s fresh highs is attacking 1912.00.
Yesterday’s dips expended a lot of energy during windows that weren’t going to gain traction for the effort. But this morning’s dip waited until the noon hour’s entry (instead of at the bias environment’s exit) to break lower. And that break’s selling pressure was satisfied soon afternoon.
So, instead of not reversing the trend down, sellers have been satisfied. The noon hour was just entered above the bias environment’s high after exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s range, making fresh highs likely.
Daily Spot… Gold and bond turns coming?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s break lower didn’t extend Thursday, but its bounce was relatively shallow and didn’t reject the attraction still outstanding to fresh lows.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow sideways ranging Thursday didn’t reject Wednesday’s close under the 1117.00 target which was still almost being overlapped at the close. Thursday’s narrow range also didn’t overlap it, or extend down, making any initial rally effort credible for extending higher intraday..
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Choppy sideways action Thursday ought to hold above 14.50 resistance and avoid putting into play fresh lows.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing fresh highs was still retraced to range narrowly around 158-00, and now back under 157-14 and 156-16 would signal a deeper drop underway.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Thursday to test 46.00 resistance wasn’t any likelier to extend from a standing stop within the prior range, which was retraced into the afternoon.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s fresh low close didn’t greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength. Gapping down didn’t help. An immediate rally at this stage wouldn’t be credible, but Tuesday’s confirmed breakout has no unfinished business below.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 2, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Here comes the big one, monthly payrolls. Bigger, yet, is the parade of Fed speakers throughout the day — at least, through the noon hour.
**Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
8:30 AM ET
*Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks
9:00 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
11:00 AM ET
*Stanley Fischer Speaks
12:00 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1918.25 | 1908.25 |
| …would target | 1923.75 | 1913.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1907.00 | 1897.00 |
| …would target | 1901.25 | 1891.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Choppy seas, behind?
Volatility may have been front-loaded.
The overnight rally to 1929.50 had retraced pre-open to this morning’s 1909.75 bias-up signal’s support. The open’s bounce fulfilled the 1915.00 bias-up target to 1917.25. That threat to renew the bias-up signal, was soon reversed into a test of the 1899.75 bias-down signal. But a big bounce suddenly turned that bias-down threat into a test of the 1909.75 bias-up signal.
Long story longer, the grace period triggered, bias-up triggered late, and yet the 1899.75 bias-down signal is STILL being tested as support.
Now the morning’s bias environment is lapsing. Good riddance. The levels and consequences were very influential before 10:15/10:30, but much less so afterward.
Recovering back above yesterday morning’s 1907.00 high would be bullish, but it isn’t even being threatened. Exiting the bias environment under 1899.75 would have been bullish. Now entering the noon hour under 1997.00 would compensate for the delay.
Anxiousness ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report could paralyze price action. But sellers (or buyers) obviously exerting control into the noon hour, let alone out of it, could trigger one more trending attempt instead of ranging narrowly through the balance of the session.