Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
My First Trade blog post 0pointed out that that despite extending up to 1929.50 overnight, the 1915.00 bias-up target must be retested from above since it was ignored from below. Moments later, it was being probed on the way down to 1911.50.
That has been probed down to 1909.25. Yesterday’s late high was testing its target at 1909.75.
This action is potentially bullish, depending upon isolating the action to the overnight. Not recovering high enough post-open, or simply extending down, would threaten to extend back to Tuesday’s lows which yesterday’s early sellers couldn’t trigger.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwhrpkc
The First Trade… Bullishness at work.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s 21-point gap up to 1896.00 extended up to 1907.00 at the morning’s high, testing the 1904.75 target. It was retraced down to 1886.50 at the noon hour’s low, to within 2 ticks of the bias-down target. The balance of the afternoon climbed back to fresh highs fulfilling its 1909.75 room for noise above the morning’s target. Closing there instead of higher or lower prevented putting into play the next higher objective. or signaling that this one had held.
Overnight action’s new info…
The reaction to 1909.75 was a 9-point reaction down into and out of the Globex open. Firming back to the morning’s 1907.00 high then accelerated its pace up to 1927.50. Higher highs into and out of Europe’s opens touched 1929.50. But that has reacted down to 1918.00.
If, then…
Gapping down seems unlikely. The other bearish scenario following yesterday’s rally included probing fresh highs before revering down before noon. The next higher objective at 1915.00 wasn’t one bit influential overnight as resistance, so it should be tested as support. Its room for noise up to 1921.25 has been probed overnight only, and not yet post-open. That could make the difference between whether a dip to 1915.00 holds, or breaks lower — not yet probing above 1921.25 before testing 1915.00 would be more vulnerable to extending down. Otherwise, recovering 1921.25 through a relevant timing window would extend the corrective rally, while making its eventual failure much likelier to extend much lower.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1918.50 would be likely to exceed the 1915.00 bias-up target at 10:15 and to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 1913.25 would be unlikely to renew bias-up.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday morning’s sellers didn’t push down hard enough early enough, or hold down long enough, to reverse the intraday trend. They did absorb the probes above 1904.75, but didn’t react down under 1902.00 in time to require an intraday probe under Tuesday’s lows. Then despite extending that reaction to test the 1892.00 and 1886.00 afternoon bias parameters, both had been recovered as the bias environment began.
Sellers gained no traction for the energy they expended. The minimum consequence was to retest the selling’s origin, i.e. the morning’s highs that were testing 1904.75. The range for noise above it at 1909.75 was likely to be included. The target was fulfilled. Still overlapping it at the close prevented putting into play the next higher target, or signaling that its test had held.
Extending higher anyway would next target 1915.00 with room for noise up to 1921.25. Rallying any higher would undermine Wednesday’s rally from being retraced anytime soon — soon enough for its retest to hold and potentially launch a more durable rally. Meanwhile, having trended up into Wednesday’s close, gapping down Thursday under the afternoon’s 1893.00 low could form a “session-long decline.”
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzxzrs
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
XP-Friendly || non-xp ilinc
NOTE: I WILL BE TESTING WEBEX SOFTWARE INTERMITTENTLY, SO RE-TRY IF UNAVAILABLE.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1919.75 | 1909.75 |
| …would target | 1925.00 | 1915.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1909.75 | 1899.75 |
| …would target | 1903.00 | 1893.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… A longer temporary.
Sellers still not back in charge.
Sellers did only one thing today. It was pretty big, but their timing marginalized that thing’s relevant. And buyers are exploiting it.
Sellers absorbed the massive gap up and post-open rally. The morning’s probes of fresh highs all overlapped 1904.75 without extending above it. They were rewarded by a reaction down to within 2 ticks of this afternoon’s 1886.00 bias-down target.
But the downlegs timing didn’t reflect strong hands.
Reacting down from the morning’s high didn’t break the relevant 1892.00 level until after the bias environment had lapsed. Testing both of the afternoon’s bias-down parameters was recovered before the 1:20 bias signal triggered. Even no-bias trending above the afternoon’s bias-up signal was retraced well before its extension would have carried a much harsher penalty than just dipping back down to 1899.75.
It’s getting a little late for any new trending, but the reward is fresh highs and potentially 1909.75. Reacting down could be productive, but probably not durable.