Posts by Rod David
Stretching optimism.
Bullish can mean there’s room for a pullback.
This morning’s noN-bias environment extended above its 1972.00 bias-up signal before the bias environment began lapsing. And it extended quickly. So quickly that this morning’s 1977.00 bias-up target was exceeded at the bias environment’s exit.
The noon hour extended even higher to 1983.75, where both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs diverged negatively. Reacting down overlapped the 1979.50 bias-up signal within 3 minutes of 1:20 to invoke the grace period. The bias signal barely avoided triggering.
The expectation for probing above 1985.00 remains intact. It’s this afternoon’s bias-up target, and bias-up wasn’t rejected so decisively as to prevent one more fresh high. Back above 1980.25 would be credible for starting that move — above 1985.00 would target 1996.00 — as expiration’s influence seem one-sided.
But having come already within 5 ticks of fulfilling 1985.00 on the same leg that fulfilled 1977.00, beware of a deeper pullback. That’s still likely only to refuel buyers for higher highs, but the buying that’s not position-jockeying ahead of expiration is optimism, and that’s getting a little stretched.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 17 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Busy calendar, influential reports, FOMC policy statement in the afternoon to keep markets anxious — what else could Thursday’s session offer? Well, it’s the quarterly FOMC meeting, followed by Fed Chair Yellen’s press conference. Oh, in case you haven’t heard, suddenly people have been talking about a possible rate hike.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
**FOMC Policy Statement
2:00 PM ET
FOMC Forecasts
2:00 PM ET
**Fed Chair Quarterly Press Q&A
2:30 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1989.75 | 1979.50 |
| …would target | 1986.25 | 1985.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1982.00 | 1971.75 |
| …would target | 1976.50 | 1966.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding up, and holding out.
Probing above the overnight highs.
Greeting the open at 1971.00 had ranged 1968.50-1974.25 during the first 3 minutes. Dipping to a fresh low at 1967.00 on news was largely recovered.
But the 1972.00 bias-up signal was touched within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period. And it was still being overlapped at 10:30. Bias-up did not trigger, nor was it rejected for a no-bias.
This is a noN-bias environment. Bias parameters are still support and resistance, but not predictive. The bias-up target isn’t in-play, and neither is an offsetting test of the bias-down signal.
Often, noN-bias environments fluctuate around the untriggered bias signal. Essentially, a “dry cleaners” morning, better devoted to running errands than to navigating choppy and unreliable price action.
Often isn’t always. And the reward of probing fresh highs happens to be due to yesterday afternoon’s buyers for having gained traction. So, there’s at least potential to trend up, but no requirement this morning.
Pre-market Tour… Trying to rock the boar.
Overnight ranging persists into the open. No unfinished business below or other lower attraction is in-play to prevent a rally beginning quickly to reward yesterday’s buyers for having gained traction. So, delaying an obvious rally would start making the morning increasingly vulnerable to backing-and filling, and likely to delay the rally until this afternoon. Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the pre-market Tour recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htprpcs