Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… That old chestnut.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Holiday-inhibited volume didn’t help to defend Sunday night’s rally to 1964.75 from being retraced entirely before Monday’s open, or from being reversed into Friday afternoon’s range after the open. But the open quickly fulfilled and held its 1938.00-1939.00 potential. Then the holiday-inhibited volume prevented attracting sponsorship for more than a temporary bounce or to attacking 1945.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Overnight action didn’t initially seem inhibited, firming to 1949.50. But that was retraced back into negative territory, back under Monday’s lows, and deeper into Friday afternoon’s range back down to 1935.25. But an accumulation pattern centered around 1938.00-1939.00 has broken higher, surging to 1946.50.
If, then…
I was looking forward to yet another bite at the 1938.00-1939.00 apple. Its support has held for several sessions, and now again overnight. And the reactions there are more reflective of accumulation than of chipping away at support. Not that this morning’s action will resume trending, with participation still a little thinner. And yesterday’s buyers didn’t gain traction. So, gapping up only to test yesterday’s highs without exceeding them could spend the balance of the morning backing-and-filling back into yesterday’s range. So long as its lows hold, the week’s biggest rally leg can develop.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1938.00 would be likely at least to test this morning’s 1935.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 1943.50 would be unlikely to test bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1961.75 | 1950.50 |
| …would target | 1966.75 | 1955.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1946.75 | 1935.50 |
| …would target | 1941.00 | 1929.75 |
| Signal status: INVALIDATED NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap… Still some patience to go.
Monday’s session similar to the prior several sessions, just in reverse, and in slow-motion.
Rather than test prior lows and then rally, Sunday night’s rally resolved into Monday’s testing of prior lows. And while testing prior lows eventually produced bounces, they were too gradual to accumulate momentum, which prevented an afternoon rally.
Rallying was also inhibited by thin participation during Rosh Hashanah worship services. That’s still a factor Tuesday morning, but much less so by the afternoon. Patience will be wearing thin with quarterly expiration just three days away, and the FOMC policy statement one day before that.
Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the post-market Wrap recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcrzmzx
After 6:30pm ET, use these links to monitor overnight Globex trading:
XP-Friendly || non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… Topical depression.
Simply describing the bias environment’s exit as being under the noon hour’s 1941.75 high leaves a lot of price action unrecognized. Three surges during the bias environment originated from under the noon hour’s 1941.75 high. One probed up to 1944.75 before reversing back under 1941.75.
But each surge’s probe was retraced deeper and deeper. And the bias environment began lapsing under the noon hour’s 1941.75 high. That last dip reacted up momentarily 3 points from 1939.00 to 1942.00.
Just entering the final hour back above the noon hour’s 1941.75 high would suggest that sellers are marginalized. The balance of the session could still gravitate slightly higher from lack of selling. Regardless, not already probing above the bias environment’s 1944.75 high through 3:10-3:20 would remain vulnerable to extending down.
Daily Spot… Setups across the board.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already having confirmed Thursday’s breakout close that requires at least one eventual higher close, Monday was free to back-and-fill. There wasn’t much backing-and-filling, but the rally did pause.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Neutralizing the attraction below Friday at 1098.40 was still testing the prior low close, so the decline’s momentum isn’t yet signaled it has ended. Closing above 1111.00 would be a good first step, but it was only attacked Monday as resistance.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s narrow ranging held the 14.35 attraction below that had been neutralized finally Thursday. But a couple of closes above 14.65 is still needed to launch a rally leg.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up again Monday held 155-12 resistance and ranged around Friday’s high, inhibited from extending higher with unfinished business outstanding below at last Wednesday’s 153-12 gap down. In fact, late-morning weakness extended down through the afternoon into negative territory.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s weakness attacking Wednesday night’s 43.35 low is the opposite price action needed to help ensure a retest of the highs above 50.00 is underway.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Has the ongoing narrow (but not narrowing) range finally broken out? Downtrending resistance at 2.72 was broken by Monday’s early firming that extended higher to 2.77 resistance. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would confirm.