Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 15 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The week’s events start to get interesting Tuesday. The pre-open Retail Sales can be influential when it’s surprising. The Empire State survey is high-profile, but not influential, although anything is possible this week ahead of the FOMC meeting.
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1958.00 | 1946.75 |
| …would target | 1964.75 | 1953.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1948.00 | 1936.75 |
| …would target | 1942.25 | 1931.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Sellers already satiated.
Quickly neutralizing the downside.
The potential down to 1938.00-1939.00 was realized during the first half-hour’s dip to 1937.75. RSIs there were simultaneously oversold, so it will require a retest. But the 1942.50 bias-down signal was recovered through 10:15 to avoid triggering.
Probing again under 1942.50 failed to break lower through 10:30, so the no-bias signal was not invalidated. And offsetting test of the 1953.50 bias-up signal is in-play.
Officially.
Technically, since 1953.50 was attacked to within 3 ticks 1 minute before the open, the intraday crowd already has essentially tested it. But we’ll still give it a benefit of the doubt.
In fact, the bounce is now extending. It will be difficult to trend any more so today than Friday, especially with today being a religious holiday. Choppy ranging around unchanged may define the session.
Pre-market Tour… Au contraire.
Sunday night’s initial rally to attack 1965.00 had been retraced already to 1946.50 ahead of Europe’s opens. That 3-4 point probe into negative territory was quickly recovered to attack 1960.00, but now 1946.50 is being attacked again. And the open is only minutes away. Exiting the open any lower would essentially put into play 1938.00-1939.00, or at least utilize the room for noise back down there. Otherwise, suddenly rallying at the open would be credible for extending higher — tentatively credible, but credible. Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the pre-market Tour here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkbhmwh
The First Trade… Tempered enthusiasm.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping down Friday to retest Wednesday and Thursday’s 1927.00 support once again held through a relevant timing window to establish the range’s lower-end. The balance of the session “rallied” to the pattern’s 1949.00-1950.00 objective — “rallied” to the degree that its intraday uptrend could be considered trending within a larger range.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open immediately resumed Friday’s rally, extending to 1964.00. But that soon peaked, and eventually reversed down to probe negative territory at 1946.50 ahead of Europe’s opens. That proved overly-cautious, as a quick recovery to attack 1960.00 has ranged choppily sideways since then.
If, then…
Buyers didn’t gain traction for their efforts Friday, so extending higher immediately this morning requires gapping up. So, reacting down without reversing the trend helps to maintain the optimism. But if the rally isn’t resumed post-open, then that restrained optimism can quickly become pessimism and drive price back down to well within Friday’s range.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1955.50 would be likely also to trigger the 1953.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1946.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.