Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Dec 12, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Another high-profile, influential econ report precedes Wednesday’s open, this time followed by a post-open report that can duplicate any price reaction. But the calendar is still thin.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*CPI
8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2657.25 | 2657.50 |
| …would target | 2667.25 | 2667.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2645.75 | 2646.25 |
| …would target | 2638.50 | 2639.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Not snapping back.
Extended pre-open rally hasn’t been reversed.
This morning’s 2662.50 bias-up target seemed generous compared to its 2652.25 bias-up signal. And it was already being tested by a couple of points during the Market Tour recording. Renewing the bias-up signal would next target an equally generous renewed target at 2672.00-2675.00.
Which another pre-open surge already probed up to 2678.00.
The most bearish resolution would still allow this morning to back-and-fill, potentially down to 2652.25, still avoiding yesterday’s range by 2-3 points. Keeping optimism excessive is very important at this stage of the nascent reversal attempt. Backing-and-filling has been limited testing the 2662.50 bias-up target as support. So far.
Resuming the rally at any time would next target 2681.00 and then 2686.00. Despite not yet resuming the rally post-open, also not yet rejecting it allows its resumption at any time — triggered and/or confirmed above the 2675.00 renewed bias-up target.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Late resumption.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s open was greeted by a recovery up to 2645.00 from Sunday night’s 23-26 point probe into negative territory down to 2909.50. Half of the earlier loss was under Thu-Fri’s lows. Actually, the recovery was already failing, struggling to hold unchanged. A post-open blip-up retraced 61.8% of the pre-open dip, and the failing resumed. Overnight lows were attacked, and then probed 20 points October’s 2603.00 prior low to 2583.00. Oversold RSIs at the low were left outstanding as the balance of the session reversed back up to probe the pre-open high up to 2648.50. The close maintained the afternoon’s trending series of higher highs and higher lows.
Overnight action’s new info…
Backing-and-filling through midnight fell to 2638.50-2630.00, where trending would have reversed down intraday. Its support held as the range narrowed into and out of Europe’s opens. A rally suddenly developed almost 2 hours later, now 2 hours old, trending up relentlessly 30 points to 2665.00. A China trade headline finally claimed to confirm Trump’s previously tweeted car tariff reduction is being implemented. A reaction down after the headline has been followed by a confirming news story, resuming the rally to fresh highs attacking 2670.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
PROGRAMMING NOTE: I’M AWAY FOR TODAY’S LAST HALF-HOUR, SO MARKET WRAP WILL BE HELD EARLY. Is trending higher in the past couple of hours finally resolving Monday’s likeliest template? It was binary, likely either to resume the decline or else to bottom. The decline tried to resume by probing new lows, that ultimately were recovered. The recovery into positive territory did not to close above a prior high. A bottom needed more evidence to be credible — not just intraday, but through the close — and meanwhile remains vulnerable to resuming the decline. A “session-long decline” setup is off the table by not gapping down. The current overnight rally creates room to absorb selling pressure without yet reversing momentum down, so the rally gets a benefit of the doubt so long as no reaction down even threatens negative territory.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 back under 2650.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2652.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2657.25 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2667.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2662.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal next targeting 2672.00-2675.00.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2625.00 | 2652.25 |
| …would target | 2662.25 | 2662.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2633.50 | 2634.00 |
| …would target | 2623.75 | 2624.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.