Posts by Rod David
Pre-close view… Mortgaging its future.
Is late-surge borrowing future buying pressure?
This afternoon”s late bias-down signal eventually triggered under 1914.00. Its 1908.25 bias-down target was met at the low as the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30.
Retesting 1908.25 after a brief bounce, with no unfinished business below, launched a reversal back up to the noon hour”s 1924.50 high. Now that”s being probed to within ticks of this morning”s 1930.00 highs.
Hold-short or hold-long ahead of a weekend is unusual, more so ahead of a three-day weekend. But Globex does open normally Sunday night. And a lot of future buying pressure is being borrowed very aggressively during the last 60-90 minutes. So a hold-short is certainly tempting.
Daily Spot… Is Gold going?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Touching Thursday”s low and then firming into Friday afternoon avoids confirming Thursday”s breakout. It”s not quite enough to actually reject the breakout, but that attempt to trend down failed.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday”s break extended down Friday to probe under the 1125.70 pullback limit and to retest last week”s 1117.00 low by $1. There was already no bullish reason for Thursday”s break, and now Friday”s second consecutive lower close has confirmed.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging narrowly at or around 14.55 remains vulnerable to quickly visiting the recent gap down at 14.35 under all prior lows that requires being filled before a credible rally can begin.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Friday and firming to probe the 155-16 buy signal didn”t extend higher intraday. It”s still credible, but desperately needs confirmation from a second consecutive higher close.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A little weakness Friday didn”t undermine Thursday”s higher close that had confirmed the prior day”s recovery, targeting a fresh high.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down and trading weaker intraday Friday didn”t break under the range”s prior lows. Thursday”s piercing of its upper-end didn”t require immediate confirmation, so early strength Monday would be credible for trending higher intraday.
Not up? Okay. Down, then.
Vulnerability as an investment thesis.
The vast open space of gap above this morning”s open was barely probed. But it was probed twice, and both times failed to extend. So, in the absence of up, there is down.
Not that the pattern required resolving down. Not that its required resolution would be a straight path down. But that was the vulnerability, as much by default as by any other influence — primarily, because there was no other influence.
Anyway, the open”s tests of 1930.00 have been retraced to fresh post-open lows at 1912.50. Lest that be confused as trending or any other commitment or intent, notice that 1914.00 is this afternoon”s bias-down signal. Overlapping it within 3 minutes of the 1:20 timing window has invoked the grace period.
Having touched the 1910.50 overnight low, recovering 1914.00 through 1:30 could trap shorts. Otherwise the 1908.25 bias-down target is in-play. Being a bias-down environment and a Friday afternoon, trending down under it would likely probe 1898.50, too.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Sep 7 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Labor Day in the U.S. All markets are closed. Globex opens normally at 6:00pm ET Sunday and trades through 1:00pm ET Monday. It re-opens at 6:00pm ET Monday.
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1929.00 | 1927.00 |
| …would target | 1936.00 | 1934.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1916.00 | 1914.00 |
| …would target | 1910.25 | 1908.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.