Posts by Rod David
Pre-close view… Now, THAT’S a head fake.
Bit intraday round-trip now just waiting for more news.
Wednesday”s pre-open rally had been retraced essentially back to unchanged. So was this morning”s — at least, back to its overnight lows. But there”s no requirement to trend any further today.
Knowing tomorrow”s Employment Situation report is just ahead, this afternoon had formed a trading range. A pretty wide ranging 1945.00-1957.00 range, but a range nonetheless.
Now this late, that range is finally breaking lower to 1942.00. Sellers almost gained traction for their efforts, but there is no bottoming pattern.
Daily Spot – No new ground.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday”s delay wasn”t entirely inappropriate for the recovery”s timing, if the recovery were still valid. Regardless, any further delay to recovery would be replaced by a new downleg. Just failing to gap up Thursday was already a warning. The morning”s plunge was by then old news. At this stage, recovery hopes depend upon not confirming Thursday”s break with a second consecutive lower close Friday.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday”s continued weakness from Wednesday”s test of the bounce target could have resolved up if it has resolved up aggressively. Breaking lower instead has put the 1125.70 pullback limit to a retest, which must hold to avoid a deeper and unpredictable pullback..
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Even Gold”s weakness Thursday couldn”t motivate Silver to fill the gap back down to last Wednesday”s 14.35 opening gap, which would allow a recovery to be credible.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sideways ranging Wednesday seemed uninterested in the stock market strength, but there is still no pattern that requires resolving one way or the other next.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday”s bounce off the prior low under 46.00 had initially extended higher Thursday to probe above 48.00, requiring only to close positive to maintain the potential for retesting the highs up to 50.10.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday”s EIA report not from a position of strength nevertheless settled higher. Not back above the range”s upper-end, but attacking it, so that any early strength Friday would be credible for extending higher.
Is that a recovery in your pocket?
No, just “happy” to see the weekend approaching.
That”s the headline combo I had loaded during the noon hour. Its point was that the rally was topping with its tests of 1970.50. Now, of course, 1945.00 was just tested.
Tomorrow morning”s Employment Situation report often paralyzes the prior afternoon”s price action with anxiousness. Even a narrow range in this environment is relatively wide. More so, having returned to the range”s upper-end and being unlikely to trend lower does increase the potential for bouncing.
That”s essentially the pattern we”re tracking in the chaRTroom. Pullbacks holding the 1949.00 area and recovering 1954.25 would target 1960.50. But back under 1947.00 would be vulnerable to extending down, anyway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Sep 4 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday”s Employment Situation report is both high-profile and reliably influential to price action. Normally, so is a Fed speaker. But I don”t expect any substantial reaction to the morning”s Fed speaker — at least, not without being retraced or corrected ahead of the payrolls report.
Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks
Thu 9:00 PM ET
*Jeffrey Lacker Speaks
8:10 AM ET
**Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1969.75 | 1967.50 |
| …would target | 1975.50 | 1973.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1964.25 | 1962.00 |
| …would target | 1957.50 | 1955.25 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.