Posts by Rod David
Post-open review… The easy way AND the hard way.
Pre-open spike”s retracement is recovered.
The pre-open spike touched 1968.75 — testing the 1967.00 upside attraction back to Monday”s “higher prior lows” — before reversing back down to its ~1955.00 origin. And lower, attacking 1952.00. Its reaction up had reversed back down through the open to 1951.50.
But as I described while it developed, there was no significant difference between that action and yesterday afternoon. This morning”s reaction to its news was a much steeper spike up than yesterday”s eventual firming after the Beige Book release. Still, each instance saw two attempts to reverse down that failed.
And each failed reversal attempt became swept up by a timing window. Yesterday was the position-squaring window at 3:37-3:52. This morning was the opening 15 minutes of volatility through 9:45. And there the similarities return, as each extended 15 points higher before correcting.
Each has also gone on to higher highs. In fact, the pre-open spike up”s 1968.75 high was just touched. Reacting down has violated its 1967.25 pullback limit by 2-1/2 points. Back under 1962.50 would start to signal a deeper correction underway. But recovering 1967.75 would resume the rally.
The First Trade blog post
The First Trade blog post reiterated the upside attraction to 1967 remained in-play since yesterday”s sellers had failed to gain traction. Minutes later, Mario Draghi”s comments triggered a 14-point surge that probed 1967 by nearly 2 points. Of course, being resistance, the test has reacted down. In fact, the surge”s 1955 origin is being probed by almost 3 points to attack 1952. That”s not necessarily bearish, not without also exiting the open under the 1951 prior low. Otherwise, the overly-optimistic surge has been corrected, and 1967 can still be tested intraday. Back above 1958.25 would start to signal as much.
Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the pre-market Tour.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsxvvvm
The First Trade… Not backing down.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
After retracing Wednesday”s gap up from testing 1938.00 back down to unchanged attacking 1916.00, price firmed back into the afternoon”s econ report testing 1936,00. A couple of attempts to reverse back down were absorbed, not necessarily easily, before the last several minutes surged to attack 1947.00 and 1949.00 into and out of the cash session close.
Overnight action”s new info…
Surging after the Globex open extended up to 1957.50. That was retraced entirely to attack 1944.00. But, much like Wednesday afternoon”s failed reactions down, not actually reversing the trend only led to another surge. Piercing the.original surge up to 1958.50 has since been hovering above yesterday”s close
If, then…
Not breaking beyond the range by Wednesday”s close before a three-day weekend, price action is likelier to remain within the range. The next nearest attraction above is Monday”s “higher prior lows” at 1967.00. Despite gapping up, its test need not be attacked aggressively. Retracing much of yesterday”s late surge is possible while still resolving up. The only bearish scenario prior to re-testing Monday”s range would be to retrace all of yesterday”s late surge.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1953.50 would be unlikely to also exceed the 1954.75 bias-up target at 10:15, which would renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 1957.25 would be likely also to recover the bias-up target at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1943.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 1948.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Wednesday afternoon”s ranging included two
Wednesday afternoon”s ranging included two dives off the cliff from the range”s ~1936 upper-end to probe its lower-end down to 1926. But neither dive extended, and sellers gained no traction because the bias environment exit and final hour”s entry both were within the noon hour”s range. That”s not very solid base for a breakout, but the half-hour did that anyway, extending up to 1948.
Late breakouts without traction are often brought back to reality overnight. But if Thursday”s open isn”t reversing already back under 1938 and 1934, then Wednesday”s late tractionless breakout might first extend back up to the 1966 “higher prior lows” of Monday”s range.
Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the post-market Tour… The recording”s link has not yet arrived, but I”ll post it when available.
After 6:30 ET, use one of the following links to monitor the overnight Globex action:
Win XP-Friendly — http://anymeeting.com/760-812-067
non-xp friendly — https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1952.00 | 1948.75 |
| …would target | 1957.75 | 1954.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1934.00 | 1931.00 |
| …would target | 1927.75 | 1924.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.