Posts by Rod David
REMINDER: Join us for the
REMINDER: Join us for the Saturday Review at 9:30am ET for a bigger picture review, gaming out strategy for Sunday night and Monday morning, and for instant analysis of any stock chart you request… Use either link below:
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Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1993.25 | 1990.00 |
| …would target | 1999.25 | 1996.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1973.25 | 1970.00 |
| …would target | 1966.50 | 1963.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
If traction gained by Thursday
If traction gained by Thursday afternoon”s sellers did influence Friday, then it went only so far as to restrain price action. Thursday afternoon”s complete retracement of its 42-point plunge didn”t advance any higher as Friday was essentially spent exclusively in negative territory. There was one momentary probe above 1986 in the morning, and then after the cash session close. The hesitation cut both ways, not exploiting an opportunity to plunge into the 1970”s to under 1940 Oh, well, there”s always next week.
Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the post-market Wrap recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyfpvhp
Join us for the Saturday Review at 9:30am ET for a bigger picture review, gaming out strategy for Sunday night and Monday morning, and for instant analysis of any stock chart you request.
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Pre-close view… Bullet dodged?
Bazooka shells on Monday?
Even before this morning”s price action had only ranged sideways, the likeliest afternoon scenario was to range sideways if a plunge wasn”t developing.
This morning”s price action did range sideways, and the afternoon has probed fresh post-open lows at 1971.50. But the open”s decline has not extended, so price action has begun ranging narrowly sideways.
If a plunge targeting 1938.00 or any downleg through the 1967.,25 overnight lows is happening today, then it should be obvious pretty soon. Getting too far into the position-squaring window after 3:37 could drop, but not from bearish sponsorship.
Don”t forget to join us in the chaRTroom at 4:03 ET for the post-market Wrap.
Daily Spot… Market timing the Saudis
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday”s flat open precluded forming an Island Reversal from Thursday”s range. But the combined Thursday-Friday pattern may still form an Island if Monday”s open were to gap up.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Brief overnight strength and then again post open began probing above the 1130.40 buy signal up to 1140.00, suggesting a tleast a test of 1147.40 is in-play.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday”s bounce to 14.55 resistance hovered optimistically Friday, still needing to fill the gap back down to Wednesday”s 14.31 open before a durable recovery would be credible.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday”s probe above the 157-07 buy signal was more productive than Thursday”s attempt before falling back to 156-16. The buy signal remains valid nonetheless.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Backed into a corner with falling prices, the Saudis have taken matters into their own hands to goose prices. Now we know why Thursday”s rally was so substantial despite my target having been missed by 20 cents at the lo — Saudis were entering Yemen. The news pushed price even higher, no doubt aided by two days of impending illiquidity and the return of a pre-weekend premium for geopolitical risk. Back under 42.75 would suggest fresh lows in-play at 37.55.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday”s gap up didn”t leave any unfinished business below since Thursday”s range was essentially an inside day. The pattern remains credible for launching a new upleg so long as new lows are avoided.