Posts by Rod David
Walking on eggshells.
No-bias environment isn”t quite rejecting sellers.
Neither bias signal was touched before 1:20, so “no-bias” triggered. No bias target was in-play, and neither was an offsetting test of the opposite bias signal (although that setup is more influential during the morning than during the afternoon).
The 1973.75 bias-down signal was tested anyway, down to 1971.50. But being a no-bias environment, that has reacted up (quite a big, actually, to 1983.25).
None of which changes whether buyers are gaining traction. They”re not. And the entire morning was spent back-and-filling, while neutralizing the offsetting test of its 1990.00 bias-up signal. This is one of the two bearish scenarios discussed during the pre-market Tour. And it”s the only one still active.
The bullish scenarios are all less likely than just ranging sideways through the close. Not that ranging sideways through the close is likely.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Aug 31 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: All Fed surveys but one is reliably influential, but that”s becoming less so as the rate hike question looms. So, a reaction to Dallas Fed is possible. Its reaction is likely to be in-line with the Chicago PMI, which tends to set a tone. Also, it”s released privately to institutional subscribers and any market reaction is likely to be duplicated when released publicly.
**Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1989.25 | 1986.25 |
| …would target | 1999.25 | 1996.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1977.00 | 1973.75 |
| …would target | 1970.75 | 1967.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Kicking and screaming.
No-bias, but not enthusiastically.
Recovering 1980.50 through the opening 15 minutes, or not, would have told us the 1979.50 bias-down signal didn”t intend to trigger at 10:15. Not recovering 1980.50 would have made bias-down likelier to trigger.
2980.50 was still being overlapped at 9:45, so no preliminary signal. All it foreshadowed was the 1979.50 bias-down signal”s murkiness, being overlapped within 3 minutes of the 10:15 bias timing window. That invoked the grace period through 10:30.
At 10:30, the 1979.50 bias-down signal was recovered and did not trigger. This is a late no-bias environment. An offsetting test of the 1990.00 bias-up signal is in-play.
CAVEAT: Being a “late” no-bias environment, its normal objective is not a requirement. Fulfilling it at all could meanwhile be a struggle. And 1979.50 is still a relevant dividing line, so back under it could trigger another dip.
It”s not exactly the optimal bias environment. It also doesn”t reject the traction gained by yesterday afternoon”s sellers. So, drifting flat-to-lower this morning would remain abnormally vulnerable to extending down sharply this afternoon.
The overnight pullback to 1967.25
The overnight pullback to 1967.25 had bounced temporarily to 1977 before failing. Its next bounce has attacked the 1979.50 bias-down signal to within 1 tick. Recovering 1980.50 would make the bias-down signal”s recovery likely, perhaps being today”s only chance at rallying. It”s otherwise likelier to trigger at 10:15. resuming the overnight decline.And we shouldn”t be surprised — at least be prepared — if that were to develop quickly enough and scarily enough to resume yesterday afternoon”s plunge, too… Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the pre-market Tour recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsxvfpf