Posts by Rod David
If the market looks like
If the market looks like it”s flat-lining, that”s because futures have gone limit down at 1870. I don”t recommend trading during these conditions. How about watching a video. I happen to have one here, it”s this morning”s pre-market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/cxstfsh
SPECIAL PRE-OPEN GUIDANCE Last week”s
SPECIAL PRE-OPEN GUIDANCE
Last week”s decline extended down sharply overnight. By way of illustration, the Dow”s 531-point decline from Friday was matched by midnight last night. And after bouncing for awhile, the decline has resumed and probed another 200 points under its earlier low.
Stocks are about to open much lower than Friday”s close. They will open in a very staggered fashion, so that in some cases it might be 15-30 minutes before an initial trade occurs. This may be described to you as capitulative marking a low. While that may be true for timing purposes, the ultimate price low can be much lower.
The alternative to a bottom here may be to break. Not break support, but break. (Nasdaq Futures were halted literally 3 minutes after I wrote the prior sentence). Profitability in today”s session goes beyond buy and sell signals, and depends upon systems remaining up and running.
Also be aware that we”re dealing with much more sizable moves. 5-6 tick stops in a normal environment could equate to 5-6 points today. Making a wrong move or staying too long could devastate your account. Similarly, price information you might normally consider as confirming a position is valid could be only noise.
The bottom line to it all is that there is no bottom line to it all today. If you”re trading at all — which isn”t required of you — consider shrinking the size of your normal positions. Always work to avoid overtrading, today more than any other day.
Best of luck!
SPECIAL PRE-OPEN GUIDANCE
A large crowd has been gathered overnight in the chaRTroom monitoring the decline. Actually, for awhile, we were monitoring a bounce, The 1911 low had recovered to trigger a buy signal I outlined at 1926.50, target 1934 and potentially 1938.50. Eventually, it attacked 1943. Momentum reversing under 1935 quickly reached its 1922.50 target.
Most stunning of all was after bouncing 61.8% back to 1935. The decline resumed, and within two hours had fulfilled a 161.8% projection at 1892.
Most stunning, and also most interesting, because this area starts to fulfill the minimum objective for retesting the throat of October”s “V” bottom..Either the bearish WedEX will be ignored (i.e. invalidated, as it is too late to invert) so that a rally can develop with little hesitation, or else we”ve barely scratched the surface.
The alternative to a bottom may be to break. Not break support, but break. (Nasdaq Futures were halted literally 3 minutes after I wrote the prior sentence). Profitability in today”s session goes beyond buy and sell signals, and depends upon systems remaining up and running.
Also be aware that we”re dealing with much more sizable moves. 5-6 tick stops in a normal environment could equate to 5-6 points today. Making a wrong move or staying too long could devastate your account. Similarly, price information you might normally consider as confirming a position is valid could be only noise.
The bottom line to it all is that there is no bottom line to it all today. If you”re trading at all — which isn”t required of you — consider shrinking the size of your normal positions. Always work to avoid overtrading, today more than any other day.
Best of luck!
The First Trade… Can it get even uglier than this?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday”s gap down extended Thursday”s break under 2035.00, which had pretty much been the massive topping pattern”s last line of defense. Trending down throughout the morning didn”t discount the bearish WedEX. The afternoon”s bias environment corrective bounce resolved down to resume the decline with a vengeance. Momentum and support break combined to suggest hold-short, especially with the bearish WedEX in-play.
Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night”s open gapped down just 3-1.2 points from Friday”s 1968.00 cash session close to the 1964.50 bias-down signal. Extending down formed an otherwise large sideways range down to 1950.00. That broke lower to 1911.00 into and out of midnight. Bouncing since then attacked 1943.00 before reacting down 6 points.
If, then…
Whatever created the bearish WedEX at Wednesday”s close can still be influential after this much time, that much is common. A 166-point decline is a little less common, so the bearish WedEX”s contributing factors may have become moot. Bouncing 32 points from overnight lows does correct that decline to better enable the bearish WedEX playing out this morning as it commonly would. The Dow”s low was 525 points under Friday”s close, and doubling it would produce a 1000-point down day.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1945.00 would suggest extending the bounce to 1955.00 (1952-1957). Exiting the open under 1930.00 probably will trend down through the morning”s bias environment.
I feel a little guilty
I feel a little guilty being excited to watch tonight”s Globex open at 6:00pm ET. Sort of like slowing down on the highway to ogle a car accident.
Anyway, it”s in a half-hour, Here are the chaRTroom link choices:
Win XP-Friendly — http://anymeeting.com/066-103-448
non-xp friendly — https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh