Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review’s recording (for 8/22/15) … Trending.
Two consecutive lower closes under a multi-session range — breakout, and confirmation. That”s the minimum definition of trending, because the setup now requires an eventual third lower close. It could be thirty lower closes, but it need not be consecutive.
The substantiality of the two-day breakout, more than its velocity, suggests that it will lead to more than just a third lower close. And its velocity, more than its substantiality, suggests that third lower close will Monday.
Regardless, it”s a big change from the multi-month trading range being left behind. Not so much a new reality, as the en masse recognition of a reality. It”s a reality which we”ve been discussing during our during our weekly Saturday Reviews for almost a half-year.
Some of the observations were redundant, but now there are more points to make — about 530 of them Friday, alone, and 1100 points from last week”s high. With the welcome help of a lot of great questions and observations from subscribers, we spent 90 minutes on Saturday discussing what was expected and what”s next as the market enters a new phase.
These stocks were discussed, in this order: AMZN GOOGL TSLA NFLX FB DPZ REGN MU PANW DIS GMCR TWTR JCP
08/22/2015 09:33:27 Charles Daniel: hi0
08/22/2015 09:33:51 Mark Glezer: gm
08/22/2015 09:38:39 Miss Kitty: Does WedEx happen every Wednesday?
08/22/2015 09:39:18 Chicken Little: MK expiration falls once a month on
the 3rd friday of the month
08/22/2015 09:39:38 Miss Kitty: Ok. Thanks, Chicken. ;-)
08/22/2015 09:39:42 Chicken Little: thw wedex signal occurrs only on the
wednesday preceeding the expiration
08/22/2015 09:44:23 Chicken Little: the AM & noon hour declining channel
made another fractal IMO in the PM… don”t have much as to what it
implies, but i find it interesting
08/22/2015 09:45:24 David B: when you have a inverted wed ex does this
mean big money is behind it?
08/22/2015 09:47:24 Bill G: Gap up could be pivot rev
08/22/2015 09:48:39 David B: when we closed below 2035 on wed was the
next potentional support 1917?
08/22/2015 09:48:40 Rod David: m r: is it true that it CANT gap above a
relevant high becuase that would trigger a session long rally?
08/22/2015 09:49:11 Chicken Little: yes
08/22/2015 09:49:17 Chicken Little: you are drawing in the right place
08/22/2015 09:49:22 Chicken Little: yes
08/22/2015 09:49:38 Chicken Little: hahaha
08/22/2015 09:50:09 Mark Glezer: fractals seem very predictive
08/22/2015 09:52:29 David B: so its not a durable rally or decline?
08/22/2015 09:55:18 David B: durable rally or decline related to my
question wed ex inverted
08/22/2015 09:56:58 Mark Glezer: even if there is no gap up Mon and the
decline simply extends we cannot dismiss a potential of testing higher
prior lows around 2000 over the next few days?
08/22/2015 10:00:06 Bill G: Nothing scientific but found the low /high
on pivot rev days to have the intraday price extreme to occur around
12:30. That would fit quite well with the WedEx pattern. Of course a gap
up is I suspect a low probability
08/22/2015 10:00:15 David B: was 2035 the trend change?
08/22/2015 10:03:15 Mark Glezer: would u expect a move to the next
support under 1900 to happen within a day or two?
08/22/2015 10:06:22 Chicken Little: also lets not forget
08/22/2015 10:06:28 Chicken Little: we could be trading 1900 monday
08/22/2015 10:08:55 Mark Glezer: sure but a size of Mon move could be
comparable to Fri range?
08/22/2015 10:15:56 Mark Glezer: would u expect ES to continue its
inverse relationship with bonds?
08/22/2015 10:18:08 Mark Glezer: ES is not even 8% down
08/22/2015 10:19:54 joe parasconda: what are your thoughts on
capitulation and how it can effect a potential reversal
08/22/2015 10:20:17 Mark Glezer: headlines screeam “correction” meaning
the majority still thinks in terms of a bull market
08/22/2015 10:20:25 Chicken Little: the next one won”t be a flash
08/22/2015 10:21:25 David B: how does the russell play into this as far
as if it starts to outperform?
08/22/2015 10:23:12 David B: if we start to head toward that v bottom
would you expect the fed would try and step in before?
08/22/2015 10:24:04 Mark Glezer: was the reaction to Fed”s minutes the
actual trigger to the decline?
08/22/2015 10:24:38 Mark Glezer: since it never looked back after
printing 2094
08/22/2015 10:24:42 Bill G: Big money would not be dist in a 5% range to
turn around and buy with only a 10% drop
08/22/2015 10:26:26 Bill G: talk
08/22/2015 10:26:27 David B: QE
08/22/2015 10:28:28 David B: what number is that V bottom?
08/22/2015 10:29:43 Mark Glezer: I think they exhausted their resources.
Seems like a hint on a rate hike in Sep during the minutes could be
viewed bullishly as the economy is strong enough, Instead, the odds of a
hike went down to 38% & we went down
08/22/2015 10:30:14 Rod David: m r: Could you elaborate on your comments
about NDX being relatively outperforming and this recent decline
occurring even though there was still a credible possibility for a new
high?
08/22/2015 10:33:03 Mark Glezer: like in China – we all know where that
is going
08/22/2015 10:33:37 Mark Glezer: haha
08/22/2015 10:34:15 Chicken Little: nope
08/22/2015 10:34:19 Chicken Little: not catching any knives
08/22/2015 10:34:26 Mark Glezer: BABA – still looking for 63?
08/22/2015 10:34:38 Chicken Little: have a good weekend everyone see you
sunday night
08/22/2015 10:34:39 Mark Glezer: k
08/22/2015 10:35:15 David B: AMZN,NFLX
08/22/2015 10:39:01 David B: FB
08/22/2015 10:40:51 Chicken Little: DPZ
08/22/2015 10:42:08 David B: REGN
08/22/2015 10:44:27 David B: MU
08/22/2015 10:44:39 Chicken Little: PANW
08/22/2015 10:46:16 Rod David: m r: your comment about FB reminded me
that broader market is now obligated to a third lower close since it has
a confirmed break below the multi-session range.
08/22/2015 10:46:39 Chicken Little: yes
08/22/2015 10:46:42 Chicken Little: 170
08/22/2015 10:46:55 Chicken Little: i almost bought 150
08/22/2015 10:47:03 Chicken Little: but didn”t
08/22/2015 10:47:25 David B: DIS
08/22/2015 10:47:32 Chicken Little: that uptredning support line
08/22/2015 10:47:34 Chicken Little: kept going
08/22/2015 10:51:10 David B: GMCR
08/22/2015 10:54:17 David B: TWTR
08/22/2015 10:56:25 David B: JCP
08/22/2015 11:01:47 Mark Glezer: thx much
08/22/2015 11:02:03 David B: thanks
08/22/2015 11:02:04 Miss Kitty: Thanks!
08/22/2015 11:02:06 Charles Daniel: tks
The Universe, week of Aug 24 2015… All bad things come to an end, too.
Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Links to || Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||
Did the the number of rising stocks actually fall from last week? Uptrends dropped from 6 to 5. Don”t both with the percentage change, which can add meaning unjustifiably when dealing with such low numbers (but penny stock traders already know that).
My surprise comes after completing a review of the sector”s individual issues. There were several pops last week, and there have been 1-2 pops per week for a couple of months.
Look at CBDS, which I mentioned in the Activity Feed on Monday. It had been one of my poster children for price action contradicting hype. I often pointed out the distributive price action, which ultimately formed a Head & Shoulders, and eventually lost around 90%. But a sudden surge last week called attention to accumulative volume patterns, and by week”s end the stock had almost tripled.
We”ve caught multiple doubles during the past two months (SRNA, TRTC, MDBX, etc.), but the market seems to be igniting after fewer sparks. None of which assures that this continues. It”s still premature to reach a conclusion, but it certainly raises suspicions of having overly-discounted the sector”s potential negatives.
And all is not rosy, as the two highest profile issues (GWPH, INSY) continue deteriorating after having fulfilled very big upside targets. Meanwhile, CARA has continued showing signs of rolling over. Their eventual bottoms could mark a new wave for the sector.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for August 24, 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 5 | 4.95% |
| trends* | # flat: | 14 | 13.86% |
| # down: | 82 | 81.19% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| AERO | 1.000 | 1.950 | down |
| AGTK | 0.000 | 0.009 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.125 | 0.272 | down |
| ARNA | 2.410 | 3.320 | down |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | down |
| AVTC | 0.000 | 0.400 | down |
| BLOZF | 0.130 | 0.340 | down |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BNRDF | 0.600 | 0.740 | flat |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.048 | down |
| BTFL | 0.071 | 0.232 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.011 | down |
| CANL | 0.750 | 1.250 | down |
| CANN | 0.330 | 1.160 | down |
| CANV | 0.860 | 1.640 | down |
| CARA | 18.300 | 23.550 | up |
| CBDS | 2.200 | 3.670 | flat |
| CBGI | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CBIS | 0.020 | 0.041 | flat |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.320 | 0.750 | down |
| DEWM | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| DIGP | 0.170 | 0.400 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.009 | 0.015 | down |
| EDXC | 0.019 | 0.047 | down |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | down |
| ENDO | 0.006 | 0.018 | down |
| ENRT | 0.017 | 0.037 | down |
| ERBB | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | up |
| FITX | 0.002 | 0.006 | down |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 3.060 | 3.660 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.270 | 0.460 | flat |
| GRCU | 0.000 | 0.004 | flat |
| GRNH | 0.023 | 0.067 | down |
| GWPH | 101.550 | 132.000 | down |
| HEMPD | 0.110 | 0.180 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.100 | 0.180 | down |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| INSY | 30.780 | 39.600 | down |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | flat |
| LATF | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| LXRP | 0.098 | 0.205 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.035 | 0.074 | down |
| MDBX | 0.050 | 0.087 | down |
| MDCN | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MDRM | 0.016 | 0.051 | flat |
| MINE | 0.002 | 0.005 | down |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MJNA | 0.041 | 0.055 | down |
| MNTR | 0.507 | 0.928 | down |
| MYEC | 0.010 | 0.015 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.188 | down |
| NDEV | 0.016 | 0.053 | down |
| NMUS | 0.620 | 1.600 | down |
| NRTI | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| NTRR | 0.022 | 0.046 | down |
| OGRMF | 0.208 | 0.337 | down |
| OSLH | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| OXIS | 0.015 | 0.027 | down |
| PHOT | 0.010 | 0.030 | down |
| PLPL | 0.109 | 0.177 | down |
| PMCB | 0.080 | 0.129 | down |
| PNTV | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| PZOO | 0.004 | 0.008 | down |
| QEDN | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.005 | 0.012 | flat |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.082 | 0.165 | down |
| SRNA | 0.160 | 0.330 | up |
| STEV | 0.049 | 0.072 | flat |
| TAUG | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| THCZ | 0.051 | 0.013 | down |
| TRTC | 0.100 | 0.165 | flat |
| TURV | 0.710 | 1.11 | up |
| TWMJF | 1.100 | 1.380 | down |
| UPOT | 0.080 | 0.270 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| VAPE | 0.088 | 0.275 | down |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.050 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.024 | 0.045 | up |
| VPCO | 0.069 | 0.840 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| WDHR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI | 0.005 | 0.013 | flat |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| XXII | 0.430 | 0.780 | down |
This weekend”s Saturday Review will
This weekend”s Saturday Review will once again discuss the same old topping pattern that has been our focus every weekend for almost half a year. Oh, there”s a few new points to make — about 530 of them Friday, alone, and 1100 points from Tuesday”s high.
We”ll discuss what”s next, gaming out strategies for Sunday night and Monday morning”s possible opens. And we”ll also do instant analysis of any stock chart you choose. Join us by 9:30am ET Saturday at…
Win XP-Friendly — http://anymeeting.com/784-183-137
non-xp friendly — https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1986.00 | 1982.50 |
| …would target | 1992.50 | 1989.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1968.00 | 1964.50 |
| …would target | 1962.00 | 1958.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Well, that was fun. And
Well, that was fun. And it”s probably only going to get funner. The bearish WedEX was influential Friday afternoon, so Monday morning is likely to behave bearishly, too. And this is a very dangerous spot in the chart for bearish behavior.
We”ll discuss the bigger picture at this weekend”s Saturday Review. I”ll send out its link overnight. Meanwhile, we did summarize the day and discuss other markets coverage during the post-market Wrap, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzjwbh