Posts by Rod David
Pre-close view… Better late than never?
Closing down sharply at fresh lows on expiration.
That about says it all. There is nothing bullish about this session. And nothing that isn”t bearish about the afternoon.
The bearish WedEX was productive, making it likely to be productive Monday morning, too. That might mean a gap up trends straight down, but the market seems more interested in opening lower.
This could be very bearish, and we”ll discuss it in greater detail during the Saturday Review.
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday no the way to fulfilling 1.1220 without closing above it didn”t prevent extending higher overnight and gapping up Friday to test the next higher objective at 1.1360-1.1385 intraday. .
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending higher Thursday night attacked the next higher target at 1169.00 to within almost $1. Intraday highs held 1158.00 resistance.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The underperformance vs. Gold became more obvious Friday as an overnight probe above last week”s highs was reversed back down into negative territory for the duration of the session. Back above 15.45 would start to signal that Silver intended to play “catch-up.”
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight highs retested 160-20 but dipped back into negative territory during Friday”s open. That was recovered into Friday afternoon in a flight-to-quality. The second consecutive higher close above a multi-session range now requires there to be a third higher close, albeit not necessarily consecutively on Monday.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The decline extended, still not at any new pace other than to have begun sliding from its recent multi-range consolidation. While Wednesday”s confirmed breakout is now fulfilled by a minimum third lower close, the energy market doesn”t tend to end trends on Fridays. So, at least a lower intraday low is likely, and meanwhile the potential to 37.55 remains intact.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The confirmed breakout”s third lower close was finally produced Friday. But a lower low is likely since this market doesn”t tend to bottom on Fridays.
Livestox, Aug 21 2015…Don’t look so surprised.
Friday”s Livestox was pretty comprehensive. We discussed the following stocks in this order:
RAD — (resistance question)
SPX — market top now obvious to all
TWTR — opportunity to bottom around 24
SCTY — Atractive short, just getting started
TSLA — not attractive short or long
GPRO — stll bearish and targeting at least 47
BABA — under 70 next targets 59.55 and 49.55
AMZN — An attractive long-entry if the market turns back up
GOOGL — Another attractive long-entry to participate in a broader market rally
FB — Still in an uptrend, so not an attractive short
FEYE — Not interested in long or short, pulled back too sharply
AAPL — Starting next downleg targeting sub-100
CBDS — Triple from my mention on Tuesday
CBIS — Will be monitoring for a bottoming pattern
VAPE — Descending Triangle has broken lower
MCIG – Under .035 targets .021 and .017
TRTC — Patience with re-entry, could test .09 handle again
SRNA — Will look for bottoming potential at .16
BLPG — warming up to this
GWPH — Bearish, still returning to my sub-100 target despite a couple of bounce
INSY — Not going to be bullish for awhile
CARA — The topping issue is starting to become obvious
GLD
OIL
Pre-close view… Buckle in.
Bias environment”s bounce is greeting the bearish WedEX.
Friday afternoon and Monday morning price action should be biased downward. So says the WedEX indicator, which triggered Wednesday, and then clarified matters on Thursday.
All opportunity to invert is gone. The possibility exists, but it is always difficult. Now, not resuming the decline would invalidate the bearish WedEX.
This could get very ugly, and there”s no reason to assume it can recover straightaway Monday.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Aug 24 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday”s pre-open Fed survey is high-profile, but doesn”t have a track record for influencing price action. Not normally. None of them do, except for the Philly Fed. But the Empire State survey did, which might be a function of the hypersensitivity to the upcoming FOMC meeting.
*Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Dennis Lockhart Speaks
3:55 PM ET