Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2083.00 | 2079.25 |
| …would target | 2089.25 | 2085.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2073.00 | 2069.50 |
| …would target | 2065.75 | 2062.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Wednesday”s 17-point FOMC reaction wasn”t
Wednesday”s 17-point FOMC reaction wasn”t an anomaly. It was unusually large, yes. But it was structurally normal. Normal, for trending above a bias-up signal that had failed to trigger. Whether 17 points, or 7 ticks, its no-bias trending required being retraced entirely. And it was.
That brief 35-point round trip was followed by a 9-point bounce that also retraced entirely. But it had retraced only partially by the cash session close, let alone within 3 minutes of the cash session close when price action starts becoming less relevant.
That difference is important because the WedEX (Wednesday Option Expiration) signal relies on the closing price. And closing above or below recent sessions” lows makes a difference, especially after the FOMC reaction”s surge probed above those same sessions” highs.
Gapping open Thursday beyond either end of Wednesday”s intraday 2066.50-2093.50 range would serve by proxy to better define the WedEX signal. Otherwise, a bullish bias is slightly likelier on Friday afternoon and Monday morning.
Details and other markets coverage are in the post-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzjfxy
Tonight”s chaRTroom links, which you”ll need after 6:30ET:
Win XP-Friendly — http://anymeeting.com/492-649-085
non-xp friendly — https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Pre-close view… That is so yesterday.
September rate hike? Steep sell-off?
[Correction to Daily Spot”s Euro coverage: The next higher potential target would be 1.1220, not 1.2250]
The early release of FOMC Minutes pushed above this afternoon”s 2077.00 bias-up signal, to touch its 2082.00 target. It wasn”t in-play, but it is still resistance. Anyway, its reaction down probed back under 2077.00, and then surged to retest the 2093.25 open.
None of which changed that the rally originated during a no-bias environment. Having failed to trigger the 2077.00 bias-up signal by 1:20, 2077.00 should define the range”s upper-end. Its retest is required.
In fact, a sell signal finally triggered under 2090.25. And it has extended down to 2074.25. So, its attraction is neutralized.
And not only is that attraction neutralized, but it was neutralized pretty quickly. Almost as if the market is trying to be sure not to have any unfinished business below outstanding. Meanwhile, overbought RSIs at the 2093.50 high require a retest. And back above 2079.00 would start to signal momentum reversing up.
We”ll probably have a WedEX signal today, which will identify any bias to expect Friday afternoon and Monday morning. Be sure to attend the post-market Wrap for more on that.
Daily Spot… Hut, hut, hike?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday”s close under 1.1075 was retraced ahead of Wednesday”s FOMC news, which triggered a spike up to 1.1120 resistance. Not rejecting its recovery would target 1.1220 (not 1.2250) before another sell signal could be considered.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Recovering Tuesday back above the 1112.00 pullback limit despite Silver”s problem meant Gold intended to resume its rally. Gapping up Wednesday to last Wednesday”s high and trending through it to test 1131.50 helped to confirm the 1144.00 target remains intact. Now the 1121.50-1125.50 consolidation at last Wednesday”s “lower prior high” must hold as support to maintain the rally”s momentum.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Coming within 2 cents of its 14.65 pullback objective Tuesday proved sufficient to at least try resuming the rally. Wednesday”s gap up extended sharply to and through 14.90 whose recovery suggests the rally has resumed.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Similar to testing the 158-26 buy signal only temporarily intraday Monday, Wednesday morning probed under the 157-14 sell signal before reacting back up through it to retest 158-26.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Identifying a buy signal Tuesday also meant the decline must resume with little further delay if it were going to resume at all. Wednesday”s fresh lows testing 40.45 now need only a second consecutive lower close to confirm 37.15 is in-play.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s EIA report is being greeted from a position of weakness at or under 2.70-2.73, with a third lower close being likely.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Aug 132015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday”s pre-open Claims doesn”t have the influence it once had, but a surprise could. Otherwise, the post open Pilly Fed and LEI reports are reliable for influencing price action. Announcing simultaneously increases that potential impact (and there”s a less influential third report announcing with them).
John Williams Speaks
2:45 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
10:00 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
5-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET