Posts by Rod David
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2080.75 | 2077.00 |
| …would target | 2085.50 | 2082.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2070.75 | 2067.25 |
| …would target | 2063.75 | 2060.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Minutes late, pennies short.
Fast-evolving open quickly fulfills its parameters.
The open was greeted back at the 2084.00 overnight low. A couple of ticks deeper, actually. And soon — very, very soon — multiple points. The opening 15 minutes of volatility was testing 2077.75, down 16 points on the day.
A 3-point plunge to 2074.75 was recovered enough to test the 2080.50 bias-down target at 10:15. It was still being overlapped, so the bias-down target wasn”t renewed. Neither did it hold. Extending down any lower would target 2073.00, and it was tested down to 2071.00.
Now, a consolidation around 2073.00 has resolved down to within ticks of the next lower objective at 2067.25. And 2063.00 is below it. RSIs have improved on each lower low, so recovering 2073.00-2077.00 into the noon hour could disrupt the decline.
Today”s WedEX indicator is threatening to trigger actively bearish. This afternoon”s FOMC Minutes is a big enough catalyst that it”s possible to recover 2077.50 and possible qualify WedEX as passively bullish.
In fact, RSIs just diverged positively at 2068.25. Back above 2071.25 would signal momentum reversing up. The trend otherwise remains down.
The 2084.-2085 overnight lows are
The 2084.-2085 overnight lows are being retested pre-open. Will the 2088 “lower prior high” be recovered through the opening 15 minutes to essentially trap shorts and start squeezing them? Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrcfvvk
The First Trade… More than one way not to skin a cat.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday”s open had to put up, or shut-up. Recall that Monday afternoon”s buyers hadn”t gained traction for their efforts and the afternoon”s 2099.75 bias-up target had been met. So Tuesday morning wasn”t going to extend Monday”s rally without gapping up. And Tuesday”s open didn”t gap up. The open”s dip to 2093.75 was recovered to 2100.00, filling the gap back up to Monday”s close. The balance of the session trended down to probe just under the morning”s low attacking 2090.00.
Overnight action”s new info…
Last night”s flat narrow open eventually surged up to 2098.00, perhaps because China wasn”t crashing another 10% at its open. The balance of the night has trended down, fulfilling Tuesday afternoon”s potential to 2088.00. Eventually plunging through it to 2085.00 triggered a 7-1/2 point reaction up. A fresh low at 2084.00 has reacted up 7 points. That”s a lot of choppiness for just several hours, all centered around 2088.00.
If, then…
Despite trending down throughout, Tuesday afternoon”s sellers didn”t gain traction for their efforts in the same way that Monday”s buyers had failed to entrench their rally. The afternoon bias environment”s exit at 2:30 was within the noon hour”s range, and the final hour”s entry at 3:00 was within the bias environment”s range. Similarly, gapping down is the only way to extend Tuesday afternoon”s decline. Here is where the examples may diverge, because a gap down IS currently indicated. But the gap must be maintained to indicate that new sponsorship has actually arrived. And “lower prior highs” around 2088.00 can still cause a gap down to reverse sharply.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2088.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2086.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2083.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2099.25 would be likely to trigger the 2096.25 bias-up signal.
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2099.75 | 2096.25 |
| …would target | 2105.00 | 2101.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2089.50 | 2086.00 |
| …would target | 2084.00 | 2080.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.