Posts by Rod David
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2098.25 | 2094.50 |
| …would target | 2103.50 | 2099.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2089.75 | 2086.00 |
| …would target | 2084.75 | 2081.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Back in the game.
Pre-open dive holds ultimate support.
The pre-open drop had extended to test this morning”s 2080.50 bias-down signal as support. In fact, that was the opening print. Its reaction immediately plunged to 2074.75.
Consolidating there under the 2077.00 preliminary level eventually began firming. And that firming eventually formed a buy setup. The 2080.50 bias-down signal was overlapped within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period. But that was on the way to within 1 tick of 2088.00 tick.
The no-bias signal puts into play an offsetting test of the 2091.00 bias-up signal, Back under 2082.00 and 2080.50 would be likelier to probe fresh lows around 2073.00.
The overnight reaction down from
The overnight reaction down from 2094.50”s surge has more and more resembled its rejection. Another leg down probed 1 point under this morning”s 2080.50 bias-down signal.
The signal doesn”t trigger until 10:15. And holding its test would put into play an offsetting test of the 2091 bias-up signal. Visiting 2091 had been “unfinished business” left outstanding last week, and neutralizing it overnight doesn”t prevent retesting it intraday.
There will also be an attraction for filling the gap back up to Friday”s 2087.25/2089.50 closes.
Triggering the 2080.50 bias-down signal at 10:15 — which will be warned by exiting the opening 15 minutes of volatility under 2077 — would target 2073.75 and possibly lower.
More details and other markets coverage were discussed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzjxyj
The First Trade…. Fighting choppy waters and a slight undertow.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday”s late-afternoon”s slide from testing 2089.00 was a suspicious lot of pessimism to appear suddenly, and it had stopped magically at the critical 2077.00 support. And it left “unfinished business above” at 2091.00. Not gapping open sharply in either direction Friday made the balance of the session likely to range choppily in the morning, and then to trend higher into the close. The choppy morning did resolve up, but only to test its minimum objective at 2088.00.
Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night”s open firmed immediately to neutralize the 2091.00 attraction, and firmed a little further. Eventually, a 6-1/2 point slide attacked 2085.00. The slide had been retraced almost entirely before Europe”s opens, which triggered a surge to 2094.50. That reversed quickly back down to fresh lows attacking 2084.00. Its reaction has been consolidating between Friday”s 2087.25 cash session and 2089.50 futures closes.
If, then…
Extending higher at all Monday is likely to extend higher a lot, to 2095.50, 2099.25 and potentially also to 2105.50. But extending higher also means not quickly rejecting an early gain. Was the overnight failed surge coming out of Europe”s opens just a warning of that rejection, or was it foreshadowing it? It would be the actual rejection, itself, if its reversal were to extend down much lower here.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2093.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2091.00 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2082.00 would be likely at least to test the 2080.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2077.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down at 10:15.
Here are tonight”s chaRTroom log-in
Here are tonight”s chaRTroom log-in links. They”ll go live just before the overnight Globex open at 6:00pm ET.
I”m not unaware of any substantial weekend news. Chiefs won their pre-season opener, but that”s not exactly what I would consider “market moving”. It was pre-season.
Win XP-Friendly — http://anymeeting.com/255-748-173
non-xp friendly — https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy