Posts by Rod David
The 2099.75 bias-up target was
The 2099.75 bias-up target was met literally at Monday”s very last minute. And it was still being tested at the close. Not exceeded to put into play the next higher target (2105.50) or rejected to trigger even a nominal pullback (2095.50).
Meanwhile, the rally didn”t gain traction for its efforts. The bias environment exit was within the noon hour”s range and the final hour”s entry was within the bias environment”s range. Not necessarily a problem, not until extending higher anyway into the close.
Optimism is less restrained than it was Thursday and Friday, which was responsible for anticipating higher highs today. The gap back to last Monday”s close was filled without closing above it. And without the rally gaining traction, the only way to extend the rally Tuesday morning is by gapping up. A pullback could test 2088 without reversing the trend down, being careful not to suggest a “session-long decline” by gapping open under Monday afternoon”s 2095 low.
Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the post-market Wrap recorded here:
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Pre-close view… Suspended animation.
Attraction above is lacking momentum from below.
This afternoon”s 2094.50 bias-up signal triggered, putting into play its 2099.75 bias-up target. The bias signal hadn”t been rejected when the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30, so its target became “unfinished business above” that requires being tested eventually.
Meanwhile, the same buy signal that triggered this morning above 2087.25 has held repeated tests of pullback limits along the way. Upside momentum hasn”t matched this morning”s surge, but it”s not just relatively slow… it”s just slow.
Back under 2095.00 would trigger a pullback targeting at least 2092.25, perhaps 2088.00. But the trend otherwise remains up.
Daily Spot… Trending bar.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night”s dip tested the 1.1075 reversal signal and bounce back up to 1.1120. But only temporarily, as the morning”s low was retested. A second consecutive lower close Tuesday would confirm that momentum had reversed down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Two days of testing the 1112.00 pullback limit resolved up before Monday”s open gapped up to test those two days” 118.00-1120.00 highs. But the opening surge didn”t extend any higher. Neither was it rejected, so extending higher overnight would be likely to trend up Tuesday, too.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday”s deeper test of its “lower prior highs” was almost rejected into Monday”s gap up. But the open”s surge didn”t extend higher as the balance of the session ranged sideways in positive territory. Back under 15.15 would probably test 14.90 as support. But almost any strength above 15.40 would be credible for extending higher.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing the 158-26 buy signal at Monday”s open extended up toward last week”s prior intraday highs, with potential back to last week”s 160-22 overnight highs if not rejected Tuesday.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows were probed Sunday night under 42.00 and even lower intraday Monday to test 41.65. The trend remains down so long as 43.10 now holds as resistance.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday”s extension of Thursday”s EIA reaction had attacked 2.77 support. Sunday night”s gap down pole vaulted over it to probe a nickel lower Monday, back to the two-week old prior low. Having touched a relevant level, closing back above 2.77 would now suffice at least to test the range”s 2.88 upper-end.
Good things come to those that don’t wait too long.
Hovering pessimistically at the highs.
The reward for having absorbed the test of this morning”s 2080.50 bias-down signal has been fulfilled. Its offsetting test of the 2091.00 bias-up signal was met on the way to 2093.75.
That was 3 points above the bias-up signal which should define the bias environment”s upper-end, so it attracted price back down. Now that the bias environment has lapsed, not yet resuming the rally can be blamed on this being the noon hour.
So, the noon hour”s exit should resume the rally. And having stopped pessimistically short of overnight highs by 1 point, the contrarian setup suggests that the rally”s resumption should be aggressive.
The rally is vulnerable already to resuming, just having made it 61.8% of the way through the noon hour
The afternoon”s 2094.50 bias-up signal may yet trigger at the 1:20 bias timing window. Remember that the potential upside is substantial. Meanwhile, reacting down has room to 2088.00 before suggesting a bearish resolution instead.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 18 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Perhaps Tuesday”s housing sector report can be strong enough to give the Fed more cover for raising rates soon. But the report isn”t otherwise high-profile enough that it can be so weak as to undermine any Fed action.
*Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET