Posts by Rod David
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2105.00 | 2101.50 |
| …would target | 2110.75 | 2107.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2094.50 | 2091.00 |
| …would target | 2089.50 | 2086.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Perfectly predictable, unfortunately.
As suspected, this morning doesn”t want to trend.
The 2095.50 bias-down signal was still being overlapped within 3 minutes of the 10:15 bias timing window to invoke the grace period through 10:30. It was recovered through then to trigger “late no-bias” instead of a clean no-bias.
An offsetting test of its 2103.00 bias-up signal is in-play, but more as a strong suggestion than as a requirement. As we discussed during the Market Tour, placement and price action already suggested this morning doesn”t want to trend.
The open”s choppy ranging confirms the pre-open expectation not to expect anything specific this morning. In fact, despite surging to 2099.25 resistance after invoking the grace period, 2095.50 was just retested.
I”m a little reluctant to label it as a “dry cleaners morning.” i.e. perhaps spent more productively running errands. Tests of one end of the range are likely to reverse back to the other end. But signals have not yet been probed beyond their first 3 minutes, which just adds to the unpredictability.
Probing 2093 momentarily down to
Probing 2093 momentarily down to 2092.25 has reacted back up to greet the open around 2097.50. That”s still negative territory and not a gap up, making any rally effort this morning likely to fail. Similarly, being above yesterday afternoon”s 2096 low makes any sell-off likely to be recovered. So, opening within 2-3 points of yesterday”s 2099.25 close probably won”t offer any attractive immediate entry setups. More detail and other markets coverage is in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shwyjjw
The First Trade… Reinforcements haven’t arrived.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Probing fresh highs overnight at 2094.50 didn”t prevent gapping down Monday. But Thursday and Friday”s lows held at 2075.00, recovering 2080.50 in time to put into play 2091.00. Momentum slowed but did not stop — triggering the afternoon”s 2094.50 bias-up signal targeted 2099.75, which was tested at the cash session”s very last possible minute .
Overnight action”s new info…
Firming into the Globex open soon extended up to 2103.75, 4 points above yesterday afternoon”s bias-up target that had been met at the close. But that was the end of that. Reversing down about 10 points eventually tested and retested 2093.00, probing back under yesterday morning”s highs. Its retest is being accompanied by WMT”s big earnings drop.
If, then…
Yesterday”s rally didn”t gain traction, not at the bias environment exit or at the final hour”s entry. So, gapping up is likely the only way to resume the rally without delay, and a gap up is certainly not indicated at this moment. That said, the overnight dip hasn”t slipped too far back into negative territory — not, yet. Meanwhile, though, a “session-long decline” setup would begin forming by maintaining a gap down under yesterday afternoon”s 2096.00 low. I”ll be skeptical of that setup if it”s not triggered decisively. Recovering positive territory above 2099.25 before the open could get carried away easily to the upside.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2096.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2095.50 bias-down signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2099.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2103.00 bias-up signal.
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2106.50 | 2103.00 |
| …would target | 2112.75 | 2109.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2099.00 | 2095.50 |
| …would target | 2091.75 | 2088.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.