Posts by Rod David
Pre-close view… On the launching pad.
Greeting the last hour in position, but without requirement.
Today”s session was expected to range choppily sideways, if not also generally biased upward, at least into late-afternoon.
Late-afternoon has arrived.
The last 60-90 minutes are now free from any particular intraday influences that have inhibited trending. That doesn”t mean trending must being, only that it now may.
Trending up has been a likelier resolution than trending down, and that”s being suggested by having returned to the range”s ~2085.00 upper-end. But any trending attempt that doesn”t quickly extend sharply probably isn”t valid.
Meanwhile, dipping has room down to 2081.50 before suggesting something more substantial than a pullback is underway.
Daily Spot… Crude is awfully calm.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Rather than reject 1.1120 either way, Friday only ranged choppily around it. That”s not necessarily bullish, but the path higher remains open so long as 1.1075 holds as support
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday”s ranging more thoroughly tested the 1112.00 pullback limit that was barely attacked Thursday. Closing above 1118.00 would be likely to resume the rally.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping back into the pullback limit that had been tested already down to 15.30 needs to hold its test of 15.20 support. There shouldn”t be much further delay in probing back above Thursday”s high if the recovery remains in-play.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing Thursday night stopped just several ticks short of the 158-24 bounce limit whose recovery would suggest a repeat of Wednesday night”s highs testing the 160-22 objective. The overnight high was retested Friday. Any close back under 157-14 would signal the trend reversing down.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday”s inside day was in-line with the four-session sequence of consecutive non-confirmations to consecutive breakouts. The inside day does make the next trending attempt vulnerable to being false and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
After Thursday”s EIA reaction had extended down to attack 2.77, Friday”s open gapped up to 2.83 and probed it intraday. Closing above 2.88 would confirm the rally had resumed.
Slow-played and choppy.
Restrained optimism absorbs a big dip.
The open”s rally up to 2084.50 stopped short of even threatening the morning”s bias-up signal. Because yesterday afternoon”s buyers didn”t gain traction, testing the bias-up signal would have been unlikely to trigger, and its failed test would have required retesting overnight lows. So, the morning peaked there as was expected.
Its reaction down testing 2077.00 by 1 point was as deep as allowable without reversing the trend down. The choppy morning was expected, but it wasn”t required to fully utilize its pullback limit. Regardless, the pullback limit”s test held.
Two reasons tell us the pullback limit”s test held. First, it was recovered before the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. Second, its recovery attacked the open”s highs back in positive territory.
None of which means the choppiness is about to end. It”s influence remains likely through the noon hour, and probably well into the afternoon”s bias environment. In fact, a sudden 4-1/2 point downdraft just took 1-minute RSI oversold.
Even when the restrained bullish choppiness is likely to start waning this afternoon, there is still no requirement to trend — only a vulnerability to trend up to new highs into the weekend.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Aug 17 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday”s highest-profile econ report is pre-open, and has no track record of influencing price action. The post-open housing sector item might influence price action if it is surprisingly good.
*Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2090.75 | 2086.00 |
| …would target | 2095.50 | 2091.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2082.25 | 2077.75 |
| …would target | 2077.75 | 2073.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.