Posts by Rod David
Falling 12 points overnight to
Falling 12 points overnight to test 2088-2091 wasn”t enough to satisfy sellers, so the drop had extended down to 2085.50. Bouncing to 2092 wasn”t enough to attract buyers, so the drop has extended again, down to 2080.50.
That was relevant resistance last Thursday, along with 2082.25 which was tested a couple of times before Friday”s open. Exiting this morning”s opening 15 minutes of volatility back above 2080-2082.25 would suggest that sellers were done — at least, for a corrective bounce up to 2088-2091.
More details and other markets coverage was discussed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfyrjvy
The First Trade… That’s a big butterfly.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping up more than 13 points Monday to 2086.00 immediately surged even higher to attack 2095.00. The balance of the session extended higher, still, to probe the morning”s 2100.00 target by 3 ticks. No unfinished business was left outstanding, and buyers did not gain traction for their efforts.
Overnight action”s new info…
Initially probing another point higher to 2101.75 had settled back down to 2098.25 where China”s devaluation triggered a steep slide. Ranging 3 points either way around 2091.00 gave way to a lower low testing 2085.50. Its reaction up to 2092.25 has fallen back down to 2088.00.
If, then…
Before Monday afternoon signaled that trending was done, triggering a sell signal would have targeted 2091.00 and 2088.00. Avoiding that sell signal made extending higher Tuesday likelier. Extending higher would have required gapping up, which looks unlikely from a 10-14 point deficit currently. Trending back down is not the only alternative, but may be unavoidable if the open isn”t recovering 2088.00 and 2091.00.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2091.00 would be likely to trigger the 2095.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2087.50 would be likely also not to recover the 2088.75 bias-down target and renew the bias-down signal.
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2107.00 | 2101.50 |
| …would target | 2112.50 | 2107.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2100.00 | 2095.50 |
| …would target | 2094.25 | 2088.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN,, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Sorry, the post-close update was
Sorry, the post-close update was missing the post-market Wrap recording link:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/yptbmff
Exiting the bias environment at
Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above the noon hour”s high didn”t attract new sponsorship to extend the rally. But neither was the rally invalidated, although overbought RSIs at its high were neutralized into Monday”s close.
There”s no requirement to extend higher Tuesday, only a likelihood, presumably begun by gapping up above 2100 if not also above 2105.50. The seemingly infinite loop of on-again/off-again new highs is on-again, although the origin now is the weakest, yet. The attraction to new highs is being challenged more than ever by a growing attraction below. That attraction could wait to force a collapse from new highs.
Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the post-market Tour, recorded here:
After 6::30 ET, monitor overnight Globex action in the chaRTroom at:
Win XP-Friendly — http://anymeeting.com/696-186-001
non-xp friendly — https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy