Posts by Rod David
Pre-close view… Get a grip.
Corrective bounce done, or recovery ready to accelerate?
The afternoon”s bounce came within 1 tick of fulfilling its 2080.00 objective as the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30. Price action since then has drifted back down to 2077.00.
In fact, every leg has overlapped 2077.00 since testing it into the noon hour. It hasn”t let go. And it hasn”t been recovered.
So, was this bounce a classic second-to-last hour counter-trend leg that often precedes resuming the intraday trend? Those happen often during strongly trending sessions. Or, is another recovery leg about to begin, at a steeper pace than its first 10 points from 2070.00?
Back above 2082.25 would confirm a bigger rally targeting at least 2088.00. But back under 2074.00 would target fresh session lows, which is tough to defend against extending this late in the day.
Daily Spot… Crude Oil meets its refined target.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming Thursday off of Wednesday”s test of 1.0855 support tested 1.0920-1.0945 resistance to remain only a bounce refueling sellers. Back under 1.0900 would resume the decline.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Testing of 1083.00-1087.00 support bounced Thursday up to 1093.00 resistance, not yet breaking the range either way to signal trending in that direction. Above 1100.00-1105.00 would signal an upleg underway, and the risk is to fresh lows at 1062.00 or 1050.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging narrowly around 14.55 continued to avoid trending, which would be signaled beyond either end of the 14.35-14.90 range.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The recovery from Wednesday”s 155-06 low extended higher Thursday to probe above 157-00, targeting a retest of Monday”s 157-30 high up to 158-08 so long as 155-16 now holds as support.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows Thursday morning fulfilled the 44.25 target. The decline wasn”t rejected by a bounce, or renewed by closing below it, making fresh lows likely, even if only temporarily.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing a nickel under 2.77 ahead of Thursday”s EIA report reacted up sharply to test the 2.83 buy signal. It held its test for now, but remains the buy signal.
Livestox, Aug 6 2015…Turning.
24 stocks in 5 minutes. After my review of the market, Gold, and Crude Oil, I reviewed the cannabis sector. Then I addressed requests from the Activity Feed and by attendees, all in the following order:
EDXC
SPX
GLD
OIL
MDBX
GWPH
INSY
CANV
CARA
BLPG
TRTC
MYHI
NTRR
MSRT
MCIG
TAUG
OXIS
SRNA
USCR
FEYE
TASR
PPCH
GTLS
ECIG
VAPE
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Aug 7 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Friday morning”s only econ report is also one of the most reliably influential to price action,
monthly payrolls.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2085.50 | 2080.25 |
| …would target | 2091.00 | 2086.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2078.00 | 2073.00 |
| …would target | 2071.25 | 2066.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.