Posts by Rod David
Scramble for the exits.
Probing the bias-down target meant buyers were overwhelmed.
Despite its steep reaction up from touching the 2083.25 bias-down target, I was monitoring for a pullback to 2085.00 before buying the bottoming attempt.
But first, the reaction extended back up to this morning”s 2088.75 bias-down signal. And its reaction down fell under 2084.00 and 2084.00. That”s when the recovery template inverted.
In the chaRTroom I noted the danger of that setup, failing to exploit two consecutive recovery setups, as determined by producing a fresh low under 2083.25. When the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30, fresh lows were on their way down to 2074.75.
Holding a test of 2077.00 could be as bullish as holding any higher support. More so in some ways, for expending more selling pressure to fulling more support. If it holds.
But 2077.00 is pretty much the last line of defense, with room for noise down to 2073.00. Any lower would start requiring the decline to retest Greece”s 2035.00 lows — and there”s no bullish reason for that.
Post-open review… Double reset.
Another corrective bounce traps even more longs.
Rather than extend down overnight, yesterday afternoon”s high was retested pre-open. It wasn”t needed, but that reset the decline again.
So, the pre-market Tour”s strategy was to get short quickly. The shallow post-open bounce didn”t suggest otherwise, and soon 2088.75 was being tested. It is also this morning”s bias-down signal, and it ultimately triggered
Now this morning”s 2083.25 bias-down target has been touched. Oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the low will require its eventual retest. But they were higher lows (technicals), and it was 10:30 (timing), at the target (pricing). Its reaction is already up 5 almost points.
Although the recovery could extend higher uninterrupted, I”m monitoring for a pullback to test 2085.00-2086.25 (being tested now).
This is the same template that could have greeted the open in recovery mode after satisfying unfinished business below overnight. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back above its 2088.75 bias-down signal would indicate the selling was likely done, and above 2092.25 that buyers had retaken control.
INSY”s peaking is becoming more
INSY”s peaking is becoming more widely obvious, and so is SRNA”s bottoming. We”ll look at these and other current setups, including your requests, during today”s Livestox
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Thursday”s pre-market Tour is available
Thursday”s pre-market Tour is available in two recordings, linked below… A surge had retested yesterday afternoon”s 2098.50 high, which is assumed to have been the peak of a corrective bounce so the decline could resume. But the decline has not resumed, not yet, so gapping up to and through the 2098.50 area could still rally back to yesterday morning”s highs. Otherwise, fresh lows remain likely.
Details were recorded here:
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Other markets coverage was recorded here:
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The First Trade…. Holding pattern patter.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday”s open resumed and extended the overnight rally, renewing the bias-up signal, and testing the 2105.50 renewed bias-up target to 2107.00. That ended with the morning bias environment”s exit, which began a 15-point slide to 2091.00 into the afternoon bias environment”s entry. A corrective bounce to 2098.50 resumed sliding into the close, leaving the afternoon”s 2088.75 bias-down target outstanding.
Overnight action”s new info…
The late slide extended to within 1 tick of Wednesday”s low at 2091.00. Bouncing 5 points to test 2096.00 in positive territory retraced the slide by 61.8%. Its reaction down has held 2092.00.
If, then…
Wednesday afternoon”s corrective bounce was intended to restart the decline so it could fulfill unfinished business below at the afternoon”s 2088.75 bias-down target. That could have been neutralized overnight by testing it, or neutralized overnight by rallying back above Wednesday afternoon”s highs. Not doing either makes the decline likely to resume this morning, still capable of holding a test of 2088.75, but not as likely — and now it is also this morning”s bias-down signal.
First Trade…
This morning”s preliminary signals don”t seem very informative. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2088.00 would be likely to trigger the 2088.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2097.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.