Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2105.75 | 2099.25 |
| …would target | 2111.75 | 2105.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2095.00 | 2088.75 |
| …would target | 2089.75 | 2083.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Wednesday afternoon”s corrective bounce peaked
Wednesday afternoon”s corrective bounce peaked at 2098.50, where the noon hour was entered. Entering the noon hour any lower would have reflected so much selling pressure that the balance of the session would have trended down instead of ranging sideways. So, not exploiting the opportunity to recover 2098.50 does suggest lower lows are likely.
Wednesday afternoon”s outstanding 2088.75 bias-down target also suggest lower lows are likely. So does the 2090.75 low”s oversold RSIs that require a retest. Since Wednesday”s entire session developed in positive territory, neutralizing these lower attractions overnight could still greet Thursday”s open recovering into positive territory. Not already recovering from their overnight tests would likely gap down even more sharply.
Fresh lows can be avoided altogether. It”s the least likely scenario, but gapping up above 2099.25-2101.50 would be likely to retest Wednesday”s highs that tested 2105.50. Gapping up and immediately recovering 2105.50 would simply target new highs.
Details and other markets coverage are in the post-market Tour recorded at
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After 6:30 ET tonight, use the following links to monitor the chaRTroom overnight:
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Pre-close view… Busted template, active pattern.
Session-long nothing, as bounce extends.
This afternoon”s 2095.50 bias-down signal triggered. It was no more productive after 1:20 than before, so it could have been invalidated by exiting the bias environment above the prior timing window”s high.
But the bias environment exit was still overlapping 2095.50. While probing above it, but still overlapping it. Its 2088.75 bias-down target now becomes “unfinished business below” that must be tested eventually.
Meanwhile, sloppy ranging between 2091.00-2095.50 needed to be reset. Breaking back above 2094.50 triggered a buy signal targeting at least 2097.50, and potentially 2099.50. It just tested 2098.50, which is sufficient to launch a new downleg into the close back under 2096.00.
Extending higher anyway would next target 2101.50, whose recovery would resume the rally from yesterday”s lows.
Daily Spot…Volatility gets a jolt.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Lower lows Tuesday night reacted up from 1.0855 support, which Wednesday retested reacted up, too. Although that was the decline”s original target, the current decline still stopped optimistically short of retracing entirely back down to prior lows. This suggests this is not just a retest of prior low, but a new downleg.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Without gapping open either way Wednesday, the template”s symmetry has been invalidated. Closing under 1087.00 and 1083.00 with confirmation the following day puts into play fresh lows targeting 1062.00 and potentially also 1050.00. There is otherwise room back up to 1100.00 before signaling a rally underway
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging dipped to retest the 14.55 support that must hold tests to avoid launching a new downleg.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday extended Tuesday”s pullback, probing under the 156-24 pullback limit and testing the 155-16 sell signal. The day”s 155-07 low represents a 61.8% retracement of the latest upleg, which is an appropriate spot to launch a retest of the high up to 158-08 that satisfies remaining buying pressure.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initially firming further Wednesday came within a nickel of the 46.75 bounce limit before the EIA report triggered a return to fresh lows attacking the 44.25 target..
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday”s gap up above Tuesday”s high was retraced 61.8% back into Tuesday”s range. Tuesday”s breakout wasn”t confirmed, but also not rejected, and back above 2.83 would now signal a rally leg is underway.
Session-long what?
Noon hour”s downdraft threatens to invert earlier bullishness.
2107.00 was visited while testing this morning”s 2105.50 renewed bias-up target.That didn”t extend, and the balance of the bias environment ranged narrowly sideways, hovering under 2105.50.
Until the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. That timing window”s end was greeted by what has been relentless selling that just touched 2092.75.
Has the session-long rally setup inverted? Almost, but not quite. The bias environment finished lapsing at noon back AT the morning”s 2098.50 bias-up target, not UNDER it. That hasn”t prevented the noon from extending down, but it does suggest the lower lows will be recovered.
Triggering the afternoon”s 2095.50 bias-down signal can still invert the session-long rally. The remaining timing windows would be likely to trend down.
Otherwise, triggering no-bias by recovering 2095.50 at 1:20 would make the balance of the session likely to trend up. Not necessarily all the way back up to session highs, but trending higher nonetheless.