Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Aug 6 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Thursday”s calendar is busy, but not very influential to price action. The BOE policy statement may have some effect, and Jobless Claims are of greater interest this week with Friday”s payrolls report following so closely.
*BOE Policy Statement
7:00 AM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US Payroll to Population
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2109.25 | 2102.75 |
| …would target | 2114.25 | 2107.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2102.00 | 2095.50 |
| 1…would target | 2095.25 | 2088.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Follow-through.
Renewed bias-up target met, exceeded.
I described during the pre-market Tour why last night”s rally was likelier than most to extend higher post-open. Its 6-point pre-open pullback had firmed to open at 2098.50, this morning”s bias-up target. Immediately extending higher attacked the overnight high, and trending higher through a couple of econ reports eventually fulfilled the 2105.50 renewed bias-up target.
Influence of bias parameters diminishes with each renewal. So, exceeding the 2105.50 renewed bias-up target through 10:15 wouldn”t have been required to extend higher. By the same token, still testing the renewed target at 10:15 doesn”t necessarily limit the upside.
The session-long rally setup remains intact. Each timing window but one should probe its prior timing window”s high. Inverting this setup would require a significant reaction down before the noon hour. But fresh highs were just probed through 9:30, now testing 2107.00.
Despite the bias parameters losing influence on each renewal, the next higher objective would be 2111.25 so long as 2105.50”s recovery is maintained. The 1-minute RSI hasn”t been overbought since the open, which suggests that buyers are barely breaking a sweat.
The overnight rally accelerated and
The overnight rally accelerated and extended, probing 7 points above yesterday”s high at 2103.25. Now a pullback is testing this morning”s 2098.50 bias-up target as support. Holding 2095.50 or failing to hold it can be predictive of this morning”s price action, if not also for the day, since its resolution might invert a “session-long rally” setup. Details, consequences, and other market coverage were discussed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfyrypj
The First Trade… Getting the heck out of Dodge.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning”s no-bias environment tested its 2095.50 bias-up signal before being dragged down into the afternoon to 2081.50. Bouncing back up to 2090.00 still managed only barely to close above the relevant 2084.00 and avoid putting into play 2077.00. But it was an “inside day” that had little predictive value, apart from leaving oversold RSIs outstanding at the low which require a retest.
Overnight action”s new info…
After ending the day at Tuesday”s lows, overnight rallying is attacking Tuesday”s highs. Initially attacking Tuesday”s 2081.50 low to within 3 ticks has since trended back up, eventually probing above Tuesday”s late 2090.00 high, and the afternoon bias environment”s 2092.25 high, now within 1 tick of yesterday”s 2096.25 high.
If, then…
Fresh lows testing 2077.00 become more likely as a recovery is delayed. And the vulnerability increases for gapping down. So, it”s fitting that the vulnerability below can be neutralized by gapping up — above Tuesday afternoon”s 2092.50 high. Greeting the cash session from within Tuesday afternoon”s range would still be vulnerable to trending down intraday. And having rallied so strongly and relentlessly overnight, the biggest threat to a rally is if new sponsorship isn”t attracted after expending so much energy overnight.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2092.50 would be likely to trigger the 2091.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2099.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2098.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2088.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.