Posts by Rod David
“Planned maintenance” Or, so they
“Planned maintenance”
Or, so they say, despite there having been no advance customer notice before taking all services off-line for several hours mid-week. Anyway, if the ISP isn”t yet available by 7:00am ET as they assured me 3 hours ago, then I”ll switch over to my redundant network. At that time, please use one of the following chaRTroom links:
Win XP-Friendly — http://anymeeting.com/910-915-043
non-xp friendly — https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2097.75 | 2091.00 |
| …would target | 2105.00 | 2098.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2089.00 | 2082.50 |
| …would target | 2083.75 | 2077.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Tuesday”s open needed to extend
Tuesday”s open needed to extend higher with little delay to anticipate a morning rally. Not that the alternative was down. Trending, at all, is difficult to start too much after the open. And trying to trend too late can be contrarian. That was the case Tuesday, which waited until triggering no-bias before testing its bias-up signal, and then essentially trended down through the balance of the session.
2084 was retested as support and was recovered again through the close. Which means nothing — that doesn”t prevent extending down Wednesday or require recovering. Closing under 2084 would have put into play 2077, but a separate signal can put that into play.
Perhaps the most bullish element to Tuesday”s price action is that it didn”t exploit opportunities to establish lower objectives. The example above of holding 2084 as support is all the more relevant for coming after a bounce that had neutralized upside attractions (due to no-bias trending).
So, extending down to 2077 at this stage could gap down to it Wednesday to compensate for the delay. By the same token, gapping up above Tuesday afternoon”s 2090 high could resume the recovery attempt that had been underway.
Details and other markets were discussed during the post-market Wrap here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/yptbtvs
Links for monitoring overnight action in the chaRTroom will change after 6:30pm ET to:
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Pre-close view… Another narrow escape?
There”s a path to resuming the rally. But the door to it is closing.
The afternoon”s bias environment was entered after retesting the morning”s 2087.00 low. The bias environment began by bouncing back up to the noon hour”s 2092.50 high. Noise.
Then the noise grew louder, by plunging 11 points to 2081.50. During the no-bias environment. And 3 points under the bias-down signal. That”s no-bias trending, which required bouncing back up to the 2084.50 bias-down signal.
The bounce could have been reversed back down to resume the decline next targeting 2077.00. But the bounce extended back up to the 2089.50 1:20 print. Entering the final hour above it would have helped to avoid resuming the decline down to 2077.00. But it was exceeded 1 minute later.
Oversold RSIs at the 2081.50 low require its eventual retest. That can be delayed so long as the balance of this session resumes rallying. Closing today in positive territory would essentially isolate today”s selling to help fuel a rally tomorrow (if not already overnight). That path higher should be obvious no later than the 3:10-3:20 timing window, or else the intraday decline will have more likely resumed.
Daily Spot… Spotlight on the Euro.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday”s consolidation had been supported by 1.0945 pullback limit, which was finally probed Tuesday afternoon back to Friday”s 1.0900 low. So long as 1.0930 now holds as resistance, the 1.0835 low”s retest is in-play, probably on the way to lower lows.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday”s ranging was even narrower than Monday”s, both of which held above 1087.00 support, despite an overnight drop to 1080.00. The complacency is problematic to the pattern, as its timing requires a resolution to have been obvious before Tuesday”s noon hour. This delay often resolves by gapping sharply in either direction, i.e. trending sharply overnight.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday”s dip to 14.55 support was probed overnight but recovered in time for Tuesday to remain firm. But the recovery must extend back up through 14.75 to suggest that a rally leg may be underway.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down slightly Tuesday didn”t extend down intraday, hovering above the rally”s 156-24 pullback limit, after Monday”s highs came within 10 ticks of the next higher attraction at 158-08.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight firming was maintained into Tuesday after Monday”s lows held a test of 45.15, which is the last objective along the path targeting 44.25.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up above 2.77 quickly tested 2.82 and peaked there, weakening intraday to attack 2.77 as support. Closing Wednesday above Tuesday”s high would be credible for signaling a new rally leg underway.